DENBroncos
1-4
18
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
77°F
9 mph
15
MIADolphins
0-5
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
77°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Broncos
0
0
0
15
3
18
Dolphins
0
6
0
9
0
15
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
310
267
Total Plays
74
69
Yards / Play
4.2
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.20
Passing Yards
131
173
Comp/Att
13/27(48%)
22/34(65%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
5.1
EPA / Pass
-0.06
-0.23
Rushing Yards
179
94
Rush Attempts
41
31
Yards / Rush
4.4
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
15
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
25%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-3.97
-5.36
Sacks
6
4
Sack Yards
-30
-24
Sack EPA
-8.45
-10.41
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
30
--
Penalty EPA
-2.09
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
+3.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model49.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+32
Home nfelo
1,472
Away nfelo
1,421
Home Field
+36.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-54.5
Home QB Adjustment
-37.3
Away QB Adjustment
+17.2
Market Regression
-58.3
Final Difference
7.1
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
T. Tebow
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+17.2
Value
Ptile
M. Moore
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-37.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
6
Yards / Game
20
15
Passing Yards / Game
32
30
Rushing Yards / Game
1
4
EPA
EPA / Play
23
11
EPA / Pass
27
14
EPA / Rush
10
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
3
Interceptions / Game
5
17
Fumbles / Game
32
32
Turnover EPA / Game
9
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
4
4th Down Efficiency
28
23
RZ Efficiency
26
5
Dolphins Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
26
Yards / Game
23
23
Passing Yards / Game
22
24
Rushing Yards / Game
10
23
EPA
EPA / Play
18
22
EPA / Pass
17
24
EPA / Rush
20
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
11
Interceptions / Game
9
27
Fumbles / Game
27
22
Turnover EPA / Game
21
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
8
4th Down Efficiency
19
6
RZ Efficiency
24
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Dolphins
1-9
SU
1-9
ATS
3-7
O/U