DENBroncos
3-4
23
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
61°F
5 mph
51
PHIEagles
7-1
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
61°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
6
0
8
17
Eagles
17
14
13
7
51
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
226
419
Total Plays
60
67
Yards / Play
3.8
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.21
+0.22
Passing Yards
191
222
Comp/Att
19/38(50%)
16/28(57%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
7.9
EPA / Pass
-0.20
+0.43
Rushing Yards
35
197
Rush Attempts
19
37
Yards / Rush
1.8
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
25
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
1
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
23%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-10.77
-7.27
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-17
-12
Sack EPA
-3.19
-9.04
Penalties
14
5
Penalty Yards
105
35
Penalty EPA
-10.87
-1.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+197
Home nfelo
1,596
Away nfelo
1,499
Home Field
+76.4
Base HFA
+56.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.1
Net QB Adjustment
+23.3
Home QB Adjustment
+15.6
Away QB Adjustment
-7.7
Market Regression
-14.3
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
B. Osweiler
Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-7.7
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
4
Yards / Game
18
9
Passing Yards / Game
19
26
Rushing Yards / Game
12
1
EPA
EPA / Play
29
5
EPA / Pass
31
7
EPA / Rush
16
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
22
Interceptions / Game
31
6
Fumbles / Game
23
2
Turnover EPA / Game
2
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
3
4th Down Efficiency
26
2
RZ Efficiency
32
12
Eagles Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
22
Yards / Game
4
1
Passing Yards / Game
7
10
Rushing Yards / Game
3
5
EPA
EPA / Play
4
9
EPA / Pass
2
16
EPA / Rush
11
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
3
Interceptions / Game
4
25
Fumbles / Game
22
14
Turnover EPA / Game
29
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
2
4th Down Efficiency
3
7
RZ Efficiency
2
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Eagles
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U