DENBroncos
8-6
27
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
45°F
7 mph
30
PHIEagles
10-4
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
45°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
7
17
3
27
Eagles
10
10
7
3
30
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
241
394
Total Plays
62
67
Yards / Play
3.9
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.03
Passing Yards
171
289
Comp/Att
27/41(66%)
20/35(57%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
8.3
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.08
Rushing Yards
70
105
Rush Attempts
18
28
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
22
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
33%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
75%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-1.47
-14.81
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-18
-33
Sack EPA
-4.29
-8.75
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
95
57
Penalty EPA
-13.45
-3.02
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+211
Home nfelo
1,686
Away nfelo
1,500
Home Field
+40.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-15.0
Home QB Adjustment
-4.8
Away QB Adjustment
+10.2
Market Regression
-45.8
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+10.2
D. McNabb
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-4.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
19
Yards / Game
15
16
Passing Yards / Game
9
32
Rushing Yards / Game
18
12
EPA
EPA / Play
18
9
EPA / Pass
15
9
EPA / Rush
18
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
10
Interceptions / Game
7
4
Fumbles / Game
13
14
Turnover EPA / Game
20
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
4
4th Down Efficiency
25
25
RZ Efficiency
22
25
Eagles Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
11
Yards / Game
11
7
Passing Yards / Game
5
4
Rushing Yards / Game
24
26
EPA
EPA / Play
14
12
EPA / Pass
12
6
EPA / Rush
10
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
14
Interceptions / Game
8
13
Fumbles / Game
27
7
Turnover EPA / Game
23
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
12
4th Down Efficiency
28
15
RZ Efficiency
27
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Eagles
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U