DENBroncos
1-0
21
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
027
ATLFalcons
1-0
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
7
0
14
21
Falcons
10
10
7
0
27
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
336
275
Total Plays
67
65
Yards / Play
5.0
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.01
Passing Yards
218
208
Comp/Att
24/37(65%)
24/36(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.24
+0.20
Rushing Yards
118
67
Rush Attempts
27
28
Yards / Rush
4.4
2.4
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
22
Passing 1st downs
12
15
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
33%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-17.98
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-23
-11
Sack EPA
-4.55
-2.34
Penalties
10
8
Penalty Yards
96
72
Penalty EPA
-12.59
-5.39
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model64.1%
Spread Pick
Falcons-3.0
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+140
Home nfelo
1,593
Away nfelo
1,502
Home Field
+61.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-13.4
Home QB Adjustment
+20.8
Away QB Adjustment
+34.2
Market Regression
-7.4
Final Difference
101.0
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+34.2
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+20.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
6
Yards / Game
4
24
Passing Yards / Game
29
23
Rushing Yards / Game
15
19
EPA
EPA / Play
4
10
EPA / Pass
2
12
EPA / Rush
26
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
28
Interceptions / Game
8
6
Fumbles / Game
27
10
Turnover EPA / Game
12
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
26
4th Down Efficiency
3
9
RZ Efficiency
4
7
Falcons Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
4
Yards / Game
6
2
Passing Yards / Game
2
19
Rushing Yards / Game
27
4
EPA
EPA / Play
9
3
EPA / Pass
3
6
EPA / Rush
30
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
31
Interceptions / Game
17
14
Fumbles / Game
2
21
Turnover EPA / Game
23
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
1
4th Down Efficiency
32
5
RZ Efficiency
9
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Falcons
6-4
SU
4-4-2
ATS
5-5
O/U