DENBroncos
-
17
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
90°F
10 mph
24
JAXJaguars
-
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
90°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
7
7
3
17
Jaguars
0
7
10
7
24
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
363
299
Total Plays
61
56
Yards / Play
6.0
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.21
Passing Yards
274
165
Comp/Att
21/33(64%)
16/21(76%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.39
Rushing Yards
89
134
Rush Attempts
25
34
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
18
Passing 1st downs
14
6
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
30%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
10
10
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.84
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-21
-5
Sack EPA
-5.38
-1.50
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
70
47
Penalty EPA
-7.58
+0.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+41
Home nfelo
1,422
Away nfelo
1,460
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-5.2
Home QB Adjustment
-1.9
Away QB Adjustment
+3.3
Market Regression
+43.1
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+3.3
D. Garrard
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
26
Yards / Game
11
27
Passing Yards / Game
5
16
Rushing Yards / Game
26
22
EPA
EPA / Play
17
30
EPA / Pass
12
31
EPA / Rush
30
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
13
Interceptions / Game
7
23
Fumbles / Game
26
28
Turnover EPA / Game
16
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
27
4th Down Efficiency
30
12
RZ Efficiency
13
20
Jaguars Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
32
Yards / Game
13
32
Passing Yards / Game
19
4
Rushing Yards / Game
3
31
EPA
EPA / Play
9
31
EPA / Pass
21
30
EPA / Rush
3
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
10
Interceptions / Game
27
31
Fumbles / Game
9
22
Turnover EPA / Game
10
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
16
4th Down Efficiency
6
27
RZ Efficiency
2
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jaguars
4-6
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U