DENBroncos
7-4
20
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
10 mph
10
JAXJaguars
2-9
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
10
1
3
14
Jaguars
0
3
0
7
10
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
206
333
Total Plays
54
81
Yards / Play
3.8
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.27
-0.33
Passing Yards
102
179
Comp/Att
12/24(50%)
19/42(45%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
4.3
EPA / Pass
-0.44
-0.73
Rushing Yards
104
154
Rush Attempts
28
38
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.17
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
19
Passing 1st downs
5
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
8%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
1
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
18
Red Zone %
50%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-19.06
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-2
-2
Sack EPA
-2.24
-4.49
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
32
65
Penalty EPA
-4.05
-9.02
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-93
Home nfelo
1,416
Away nfelo
1,581
Home Field
+77.7
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.5
Net QB Adjustment
-5.6
Home QB Adjustment
+12.8
Away QB Adjustment
+18.5
Market Regression
+28.2
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
P. Lynch
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
+18.5
Value
Ptile
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+12.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
24
Yards / Game
27
6
Passing Yards / Game
19
1
Rushing Yards / Game
27
18
EPA
EPA / Play
25
21
EPA / Pass
23
9
EPA / Rush
30
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
18
Interceptions / Game
12
32
Fumbles / Game
31
24
Turnover EPA / Game
18
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
9
4th Down Efficiency
11
12
RZ Efficiency
27
14
Jaguars Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
3
Yards / Game
22
4
Passing Yards / Game
11
5
Rushing Yards / Game
23
28
EPA
EPA / Play
24
1
EPA / Pass
28
1
EPA / Rush
25
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
9
Interceptions / Game
21
14
Fumbles / Game
27
2
Turnover EPA / Game
10
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
5
4th Down Efficiency
25
8
RZ Efficiency
11
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jaguars
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U