DENBroncos
2-0
24
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
012
DETLions
0-2
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
14
0
10
24
Lions
0
6
6
0
12
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
354
290
Total Plays
62
69
Yards / Play
5.7
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.22
Passing Yards
313
262
Comp/Att
31/42(74%)
31/45(69%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.13
-0.20
Rushing Yards
41
28
Rush Attempts
19
20
Yards / Rush
2.2
1.4
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
22
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
5
3rd Down %
33%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-10.07
-14.22
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-11
-20
Sack EPA
-1.93
-8.21
Penalties
9
9
Penalty Yards
94
75
Penalty EPA
-2.31
-7.55
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-53
Home nfelo
1,490
Away nfelo
1,618
Home Field
+61.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+12.9
Home QB Adjustment
+1.4
Away QB Adjustment
-11.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-11.5
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.7
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
23
Yards / Game
21
18
Passing Yards / Game
21
29
Rushing Yards / Game
17
20
EPA
EPA / Play
26
24
EPA / Pass
27
23
EPA / Rush
27
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
9
Interceptions / Game
30
26
Fumbles / Game
19
12
Turnover EPA / Game
10
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
24
4th Down Efficiency
22
26
RZ Efficiency
28
29
Lions Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
4
Yards / Game
18
2
Passing Yards / Game
9
12
Rushing Yards / Game
31
1
EPA
EPA / Play
15
1
EPA / Pass
16
1
EPA / Rush
19
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
12
Interceptions / Game
17
13
Fumbles / Game
11
7
Turnover EPA / Game
13
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
2
4th Down Efficiency
15
8
RZ Efficiency
2
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Lions
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U