DENBroncos
1-2
23
TBD
Lambeau Field
67°F
10 mph
49
GBPackers
3-0
TBD
Lambeau Field
67°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
14
0
6
23
Packers
8
14
14
7
43
Spread
-12.5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
384
507
Total Plays
57
69
Yards / Play
6.7
7.3
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.34
Passing Yards
265
396
Comp/Att
22/32(69%)
29/39(74%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
10.2
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.57
Rushing Yards
119
111
Rush Attempts
24
28
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
26
Passing 1st downs
13
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
36%
69%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
50%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
2
5
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
3
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-18.70
-7.45
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-12
Sack EPA
-2.08
-2.60
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
24
27
Penalty EPA
-3.12
-2.50
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.5
Win Probability
Market84.1%
Model84.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+311
Home nfelo
1,655
Away nfelo
1,423
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+27.7
Home QB Adjustment
+20.5
Away QB Adjustment
-7.2
Market Regression
-10.6
Final Difference
289.4
Model Spread
-12.5
Quarterbacks
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-7.2
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+20.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
22
Yards / Game
20
32
Passing Yards / Game
32
32
Rushing Yards / Game
1
13
EPA
EPA / Play
23
23
EPA / Pass
27
23
EPA / Rush
10
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
10
Interceptions / Game
5
1
Fumbles / Game
32
24
Turnover EPA / Game
9
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
27
4th Down Efficiency
28
3
RZ Efficiency
26
17
Packers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
26
Yards / Game
3
23
Passing Yards / Game
1
24
Rushing Yards / Game
25
23
EPA
EPA / Play
2
22
EPA / Pass
1
24
EPA / Rush
16
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
11
Interceptions / Game
2
27
Fumbles / Game
4
22
Turnover EPA / Game
31
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
8
4th Down Efficiency
12
6
RZ Efficiency
1
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Packers
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U