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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ packers week 4, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
1-2
23
TBD
Lambeau Field
67°F
10 mph
49
GBPackers
3-0
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
67°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
14
0
6
23
Packers
8
14
14
7
43

Spread

GB logo
-12.5

Total

OVER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
384
507
Total Plays
57
69
Yards / Play
6.7
7.3
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.34
Passing Yards
265
396
Comp/Att
22/32(69%)
29/39(74%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
10.2
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.57
Rushing Yards
119
111
Rush Attempts
24
28
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
18
26
Passing 1st downs
13
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
36%
69%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
50%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
2
5
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
3
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-18.70
-7.45
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-12
Sack EPA
-2.08
-2.60
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
24
27
Penalty EPA
-3.12
-2.50

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.5

Win Probability

Market84.1%
Model84.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+311
Home nfelo
1,655
Away nfelo
1,423
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+27.7
Home QB Adjustment
+20.5
Away QB Adjustment
-7.2
Market Regression
-10.6
Final Difference
289.4
Model Spread
-12.5

Quarterbacks

K. Orton headshot

K. Orton

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-7.2
Value
Ptile
10/24
-4.1
24
10/31
3.4
71
11/14
9.6
97
11/22
-3.1
29
11/28
5.2
84
12/05
-10.1
4
12/12
-10.1
4
09/12
-3.1
31
09/18
0.8
58
09/25
-2.2
35
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
+20.5
Value
Ptile
12/12
-7.0
10
12/26
13.0
99
01/02
0.3
51
01/09
2.7
67
01/15
14.5
100
01/23
0.2
50
02/06
5.6
85
09/08
7.8
93
09/18
5.6
84
09/25
5.5
84

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Packers Defense
Broncos logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
25
22
Yards / Game
20
32
Passing Yards / Game
32
32
Rushing Yards / Game
1
13

EPA

EPA / Play
23
23
EPA / Pass
27
23
EPA / Rush
10
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
10
Interceptions / Game
5
1
Fumbles / Game
32
24
Turnover EPA / Game
9
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
27
4th Down Efficiency
28
3
RZ Efficiency
26
17
Packers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Packers logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
2
26
Yards / Game
3
23
Passing Yards / Game
1
24
Rushing Yards / Game
25
23

EPA

EPA / Play
2
22
EPA / Pass
1
24
EPA / Rush
16
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
11
Interceptions / Game
2
27
Fumbles / Game
4
22
Turnover EPA / Game
31
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
8
4th Down Efficiency
12
6
RZ Efficiency
1
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
-21
L
L
U
11/28
-3
L
L
O
12/05
-4
L
W
U
12/12
-30
L
L
O
12/19
-16
L
L
O
12/26
1
W
W
U
01/02
-5
L
P
O
09/12
-3
L
L
O
09/18
2
W
L
O
09/25
-3
L
W
U
GB logo

Packers

9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/19
-4
L
W
O
12/26
28
W
W
O
01/02
7
W
L
U
01/09
5
W
W
U
01/15
27
W
W
O
01/23
7
W
W
U
02/06
6
W
W
O
09/08
8
W
W
O
09/18
7
W
L
O
09/25
10
W
W
U