DENBroncos
6-1
21
TBD
Gillette Stadium
35°F
19 mph
43
NEPatriots
6-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
35°F
19 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
7
0
14
0
21
Patriots
3
18
10
6
37
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
472
398
Total Plays
75
80
Yards / Play
6.3
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.21
+0.07
Passing Yards
429
332
Comp/Att
34/57(60%)
33/54(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.05
+0.19
Rushing Yards
43
66
Rush Attempts
17
25
Yards / Rush
2.5
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
29
Passing 1st downs
20
22
Rushing 1st downs
2
3
Penalty 1st downs
4
4
3rd Down %
27%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
75%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.55
-3.40
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-9
-1
Sack EPA
-3.23
-0.76
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
72
71
Penalty EPA
-9.33
-7.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-57
Home nfelo
1,600
Away nfelo
1,723
Home Field
+61.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+5.0
Home QB Adjustment
+25.1
Away QB Adjustment
+20.0
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+20.0
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+25.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
8
Yards / Game
5
12
Passing Yards / Game
4
21
Rushing Yards / Game
15
13
EPA
EPA / Play
7
9
EPA / Pass
5
11
EPA / Rush
9
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
28
Interceptions / Game
16
10
Fumbles / Game
5
23
Turnover EPA / Game
27
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
13
4th Down Efficiency
17
12
RZ Efficiency
4
16
Patriots Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
17
Yards / Game
10
3
Passing Yards / Game
10
5
Rushing Yards / Game
19
2
EPA
EPA / Play
1
10
EPA / Pass
4
9
EPA / Rush
5
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
31
Interceptions / Game
6
6
Fumbles / Game
3
28
Turnover EPA / Game
30
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
6
4th Down Efficiency
3
26
RZ Efficiency
5
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Patriots
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U