DENBroncos
4-0
16
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
72°F
10 mph
10
OAKRaiders
2-2
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
72°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
3
6
1
10
Raiders
0
7
0
3
10
Spread
-5.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
297
288
Total Plays
55
68
Yards / Play
5.4
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.26
Passing Yards
254
223
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
26/39(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.19
-0.35
Rushing Yards
43
65
Rush Attempts
18
25
Yards / Rush
2.4
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.38
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
20
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
2
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
15%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-6.53
-15.97
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-12
-26
Sack EPA
-2.71
-10.07
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
103
41
Penalty EPA
-9.03
-4.96
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-155
Home nfelo
1,407
Away nfelo
1,621
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+24.5
Home QB Adjustment
+10.5
Away QB Adjustment
-14.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-135.0
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-14.0
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+10.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
22
Yards / Game
21
22
Passing Yards / Game
21
19
Rushing Yards / Game
17
13
EPA
EPA / Play
26
19
EPA / Pass
27
14
EPA / Rush
27
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
21
Interceptions / Game
30
15
Fumbles / Game
19
15
Turnover EPA / Game
10
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
11
4th Down Efficiency
22
19
RZ Efficiency
28
10
Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
4
Yards / Game
24
2
Passing Yards / Game
26
12
Rushing Yards / Game
28
1
EPA
EPA / Play
19
1
EPA / Pass
21
1
EPA / Rush
20
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
12
Interceptions / Game
17
13
Fumbles / Game
27
7
Turnover EPA / Game
12
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
2
4th Down Efficiency
27
8
RZ Efficiency
8
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Raiders
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U