DENBroncos
2-5
38
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
62°F
5 mph
24
OAKRaiders
4-3
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
62°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
7
0
17
8
32
Raiders
3
14
7
0
24
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
412
416
Total Plays
62
63
Yards / Play
6.6
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.26
-0.02
Passing Yards
113
316
Comp/Att
10/22(45%)
19/35(54%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
9.0
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.28
Rushing Yards
299
100
Rush Attempts
39
26
Yards / Rush
7.7
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.37
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
21
Passing 1st downs
4
14
Rushing 1st downs
12
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
25%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-9.48
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-11
-16
Sack EPA
-1.61
-2.62
Penalties
11
15
Penalty Yards
93
130
Penalty EPA
-9.05
-11.91
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+196
Home nfelo
1,518
Away nfelo
1,389
Home Field
+41.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+25.7
Home QB Adjustment
+29.0
Away QB Adjustment
+3.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
T. Tebow
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+3.2
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+29.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
29
Yards / Game
20
29
Passing Yards / Game
32
16
Rushing Yards / Game
1
27
EPA
EPA / Play
23
30
EPA / Pass
27
25
EPA / Rush
10
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
30
Interceptions / Game
5
10
Fumbles / Game
32
26
Turnover EPA / Game
9
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
25
4th Down Efficiency
28
5
RZ Efficiency
26
23
Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
26
Yards / Game
9
23
Passing Yards / Game
26
24
Rushing Yards / Game
6
23
EPA
EPA / Play
10
22
EPA / Pass
13
24
EPA / Rush
8
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
11
Interceptions / Game
27
27
Fumbles / Game
6
22
Turnover EPA / Game
11
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
8
4th Down Efficiency
8
6
RZ Efficiency
23
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Raiders
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U