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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ raiders week 9, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
6-2
20
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
65°F
6 mph
30
OAKRaiders
6-2
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
65°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
10
0
10
20
Raiders
6
14
0
10
30

Spread

OAK logo
0

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
299
397
Total Plays
51
76
Yards / Play
5.9
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.08
+0.09
Passing Yards
266
179
Comp/Att
18/37(49%)
20/31(65%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.06
-0.04
Rushing Yards
33
218
Rush Attempts
12
43
Yards / Rush
2.8
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
13
30
Passing 1st downs
9
12
Rushing 1st downs
1
11
Penalty 1st downs
3
7
3rd Down %
27%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
NaN%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
--
6
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.00
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-17
-5
Sack EPA
-7.04
-1.97
Penalties
12
8
Penalty Yards
104
72
Penalty EPA
-13.96
-8.41

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market50.0%
Model50.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+8
Home nfelo
1,521
Away nfelo
1,588
Home Field
+42.2
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+33.2
Home QB Adjustment
+30.8
Away QB Adjustment
-2.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

T. Siemian headshot

T. Siemian

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.4
Value
Ptile
09/08
-2.8
27
09/18
-0.6
44
09/25
7.5
91
10/02
-6.4
10
10/13
-1.0
41
10/24
-0.5
45
10/30
-3.8
21
D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+30.8
Value
Ptile
12/24
-2.9
29
01/03
-5.3
13
09/11
4.0
78
09/18
8.5
94
09/25
-1.4
37
10/02
7.0
90
10/09
1.2
58
10/16
-0.8
43
10/23
0.2
51
10/30
14.4
100

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Broncos logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
21
20
Yards / Game
27
24
Passing Yards / Game
19
19
Rushing Yards / Game
27
23

EPA

EPA / Play
25
14
EPA / Pass
23
21
EPA / Rush
30
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
31
Interceptions / Game
12
11
Fumbles / Game
31
7
Turnover EPA / Game
18
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
13
4th Down Efficiency
11
3
RZ Efficiency
27
26
Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Raiders logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
9
3
Yards / Game
10
4
Passing Yards / Game
26
5
Rushing Yards / Game
6
28

EPA

EPA / Play
15
1
EPA / Pass
17
1
EPA / Rush
17
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
9
Interceptions / Game
9
14
Fumbles / Game
15
2
Turnover EPA / Game
26
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
5
4th Down Efficiency
20
8
RZ Efficiency
13
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/24
2
W
W
U
02/07
14
W
W
U
09/08
1
W
W
O
09/18
14
W
W
O
09/25
12
W
W
O
10/02
20
W
W
U
10/09
-7
L
L
U
10/13
-8
L
L
U
10/24
18
W
W
U
10/30
8
W
W
O
OAK logo

Raiders

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
3
W
L
U
01/03
-6
L
W
U
09/11
1
W
W
O
09/18
-7
L
L
O
09/25
7
W
W
U
10/02
1
W
W
O
10/09
3
W
L
O
10/16
-16
L
L
U
10/23
17
W
W
O
10/30
6
W
W
O