DENBroncos
6-2
20
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
65°F
6 mph
30
OAKRaiders
6-2
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
65°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
10
0
10
20
Raiders
6
14
0
10
30
Spread
0
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
299
397
Total Plays
51
76
Yards / Play
5.9
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.08
+0.09
Passing Yards
266
179
Comp/Att
18/37(49%)
20/31(65%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.06
-0.04
Rushing Yards
33
218
Rush Attempts
12
43
Yards / Rush
2.8
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
30
Passing 1st downs
9
12
Rushing 1st downs
1
11
Penalty 1st downs
3
7
3rd Down %
27%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
NaN%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
--
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.00
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-17
-5
Sack EPA
-7.04
-1.97
Penalties
12
8
Penalty Yards
104
72
Penalty EPA
-13.96
-8.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market50.0%
Model50.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+6
Home nfelo
1,521
Away nfelo
1,590
Home Field
+41.6
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
+33.2
Home QB Adjustment
+30.8
Away QB Adjustment
-2.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
T. Siemian
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.4
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+30.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
20
Yards / Game
27
24
Passing Yards / Game
19
19
Rushing Yards / Game
27
23
EPA
EPA / Play
25
14
EPA / Pass
23
21
EPA / Rush
30
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
31
Interceptions / Game
12
11
Fumbles / Game
31
7
Turnover EPA / Game
18
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
13
4th Down Efficiency
11
3
RZ Efficiency
27
26
Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
3
Yards / Game
10
4
Passing Yards / Game
26
5
Rushing Yards / Game
6
28
EPA
EPA / Play
15
1
EPA / Pass
17
1
EPA / Rush
17
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
9
Interceptions / Game
9
14
Fumbles / Game
15
2
Turnover EPA / Game
26
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
5
4th Down Efficiency
20
8
RZ Efficiency
13
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Raiders
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U