DENBroncos
6-2
41
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
68°F
6 mph
17
OAKRaiders
0-8
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
68°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
17
21
0
41
Raiders
3
7
0
7
17
Spread
-12.5
Total
OVER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
471
222
Total Plays
76
62
Yards / Play
6.2
3.6
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.36
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
33/49(67%)
30/47(64%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.24
-0.35
Rushing Yards
118
30
Rush Attempts
27
15
Yards / Rush
4.4
2.0
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.37
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
10
Passing 1st downs
17
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
--
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
47%
28%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
18
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-10.39
-12.03
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
12
4
Penalty Yards
95
37
Penalty EPA
-11.87
-7.51
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.5
Win Probability
Market84.5%
Model84.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-314
Home nfelo
1,386
Away nfelo
1,711
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-11.7
Home QB Adjustment
+4.5
Away QB Adjustment
+16.2
Market Regression
-8.4
Final Difference
-294.6
Model Spread
+12.5
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+16.2
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
32
Yards / Game
5
20
Passing Yards / Game
4
10
Rushing Yards / Game
15
22
EPA
EPA / Play
7
25
EPA / Pass
5
27
EPA / Rush
9
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
26
Interceptions / Game
16
27
Fumbles / Game
5
30
Turnover EPA / Game
27
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
14
4th Down Efficiency
17
13
RZ Efficiency
4
16
Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
17
Yards / Game
32
3
Passing Yards / Game
29
5
Rushing Yards / Game
32
2
EPA
EPA / Play
32
10
EPA / Pass
31
9
EPA / Rush
32
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
31
Interceptions / Game
19
6
Fumbles / Game
28
28
Turnover EPA / Game
3
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
6
4th Down Efficiency
3
26
RZ Efficiency
1
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Raiders
0-10
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U