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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ raiders week 14, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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DEN logo
DENBroncos
9-3
26
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
57°F
7 mph
13
OAKRaiders
3-9
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
57°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
10
3
13
0
26
Raiders
0
7
0
6
13

Spread

DEN logo
-10

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
428
324
Total Plays
78
48
Yards / Play
5.5
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.21
-0.03
Passing Yards
288
263
Comp/Att
26/36(72%)
19/31(61%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
8.5
EPA / Pass
+0.25
+0.06
Rushing Yards
140
61
Rush Attempts
39
16
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
30
14
Passing 1st downs
15
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
2
Penalty 1st downs
6
1
3rd Down %
50%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
8
Red Zone %
29%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
7
1
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.64
-9.95
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-22
-10
Sack EPA
-3.79
-5.27
Penalties
3
11
Penalty Yards
25
94
Penalty EPA
-2.89
-11.49

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market80.1%
Model80.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-239
Home nfelo
1,348
Away nfelo
1,613
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-18.8
Home QB Adjustment
+4.2
Away QB Adjustment
+23.0
Market Regression
+13.4
Final Difference
-241.9
Model Spread
+10.0

Quarterbacks

P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+23.0
Value
Ptile
09/23
2.2
63
09/30
10.2
96
10/07
8.1
93
10/15
7.0
90
10/28
7.6
92
11/04
5.6
85
11/11
4.6
79
11/18
0.5
53
11/25
0.7
54
12/02
3.5
72
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.2
Value
Ptile
09/23
4.2
76
09/30
-4.5
22
10/14
2.2
63
10/21
0.9
55
10/28
-0.3
48
11/04
4.2
76
11/11
3.8
74
11/18
-3.9
25
11/25
-6.5
11
12/02
5.1
81

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Broncos logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
2
28
Yards / Game
4
17
Passing Yards / Game
29
6
Rushing Yards / Game
15
17

EPA

EPA / Play
4
32
EPA / Pass
2
30
EPA / Rush
26
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
25
Interceptions / Game
8
23
Fumbles / Game
27
22
Turnover EPA / Game
12
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
18
4th Down Efficiency
3
24
RZ Efficiency
4
21
Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Raiders logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
26
4
Yards / Game
18
2
Passing Yards / Game
14
19
Rushing Yards / Game
29
4

EPA

EPA / Play
23
3
EPA / Pass
19
6
EPA / Rush
31
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
31
Interceptions / Game
18
14
Fumbles / Game
16
21
Turnover EPA / Game
15
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
1
4th Down Efficiency
31
5
RZ Efficiency
28
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/23
-6
L
L
O
09/30
31
W
W
U
10/07
-10
L
L
O
10/15
11
W
W
O
10/28
20
W
W
U
11/04
8
W
W
O
11/11
22
W
W
O
11/18
7
W
L
O
11/25
8
W
L
U
12/02
8
W
L
O
OAK logo

Raiders

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/23
3
W
W
O
09/30
-31
L
L
U
10/14
-3
L
W
U
10/21
3
W
L
O
10/28
10
W
W
O
11/04
-10
L
L
O
11/11
-35
L
L
O
11/18
-21
L
L
U
11/25
-24
L
L
U
12/02
-3
L
L
U