DENBroncos
9-3
26
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
57°F
7 mph
13
OAKRaiders
3-9
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
57°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
10
3
13
0
26
Raiders
0
7
0
6
13
Spread
-10
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
428
324
Total Plays
78
48
Yards / Play
5.5
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.21
-0.03
Passing Yards
288
263
Comp/Att
26/36(72%)
19/31(61%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
8.5
EPA / Pass
+0.25
+0.06
Rushing Yards
140
61
Rush Attempts
39
16
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
14
Passing 1st downs
15
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
2
Penalty 1st downs
6
1
3rd Down %
50%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
8
Red Zone %
29%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
7
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.64
-9.95
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-22
-10
Sack EPA
-3.79
-5.27
Penalties
3
11
Penalty Yards
25
94
Penalty EPA
-2.89
-11.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market80.1%
Model80.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-239
Home nfelo
1,348
Away nfelo
1,613
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-18.8
Home QB Adjustment
+4.2
Away QB Adjustment
+23.0
Market Regression
+13.4
Final Difference
-241.9
Model Spread
+10.0
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+23.0
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
28
Yards / Game
4
17
Passing Yards / Game
29
6
Rushing Yards / Game
15
17
EPA
EPA / Play
4
32
EPA / Pass
2
30
EPA / Rush
26
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
25
Interceptions / Game
8
23
Fumbles / Game
27
22
Turnover EPA / Game
12
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
18
4th Down Efficiency
3
24
RZ Efficiency
4
21
Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
4
Yards / Game
18
2
Passing Yards / Game
14
19
Rushing Yards / Game
29
4
EPA
EPA / Play
23
3
EPA / Pass
19
6
EPA / Rush
31
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
31
Interceptions / Game
18
14
Fumbles / Game
16
21
Turnover EPA / Game
15
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
1
4th Down Efficiency
31
5
RZ Efficiency
28
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Raiders
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U