DENBroncos
7-2
7
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
022
LARRams
3-6
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
7
0
0
7
Rams
10
3
3
6
22
Spread
+9
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
397
337
Total Plays
66
65
Yards / Play
6.0
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.30
-0.04
Passing Yards
369
206
Comp/Att
34/54(63%)
20/29(69%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.16
-0.01
Rushing Yards
28
131
Rush Attempts
10
33
Yards / Rush
2.8
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
16
Passing 1st downs
19
12
Rushing 1st downs
1
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
33%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
NaN%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
--
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.06
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-20
-14
Sack EPA
-6.03
-5.52
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
62
--
Penalty EPA
-8.29
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market78.3%
Model73.6%
Spread Pick
Rams+9.0
Expected Value
+16.9%
Cover Probability
59.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-137
Home nfelo
1,496
Away nfelo
1,721
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-8.3
Home QB Adjustment
+9.6
Away QB Adjustment
+18.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-177.9
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+18.0
S. Hill
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+9.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
16
Yards / Game
5
18
Passing Yards / Game
4
9
Rushing Yards / Game
15
14
EPA
EPA / Play
7
6
EPA / Pass
5
12
EPA / Rush
9
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
8
Interceptions / Game
16
19
Fumbles / Game
5
10
Turnover EPA / Game
27
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
15
4th Down Efficiency
17
1
RZ Efficiency
4
5
Rams Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
17
Yards / Game
27
3
Passing Yards / Game
25
5
Rushing Yards / Game
20
2
EPA
EPA / Play
28
10
EPA / Pass
28
9
EPA / Rush
29
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
31
Interceptions / Game
19
6
Fumbles / Game
22
28
Turnover EPA / Game
2
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
6
4th Down Efficiency
22
26
RZ Efficiency
22
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U
Rams
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U