DENBroncos
4-10
14
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
051
LARRams
4-10
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
3
0
8
14
Rams
17
14
3
11
45
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
36.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
325
388
Total Plays
62
64
Yards / Play
5.2
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.29
+0.40
Passing Yards
219
--
Comp/Att
19/35(54%)
24/28(86%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.50
+0.50
Rushing Yards
106
158
Rush Attempts
21
36
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
26
Passing 1st downs
11
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
30%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
10
Red Zone %
100%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
1
5
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
4
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-22.85
--
Sacks
6
--
Sack Yards
-40
--
Sack EPA
-9.17
--
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
55
6
Penalty EPA
-8.51
-0.78
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model55.3%
Spread Pick
Rams+3.0
Expected Value
+6.4%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-3
Home nfelo
1,482
Away nfelo
1,466
Home Field
+55.6
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-74.6
Home QB Adjustment
-79.9
Away QB Adjustment
-5.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-37.1
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-5.3
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-79.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
20
Yards / Game
21
18
Passing Yards / Game
9
11
Rushing Yards / Game
21
13
EPA
EPA / Play
28
19
EPA / Pass
29
26
EPA / Rush
27
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
3
Interceptions / Game
22
7
Fumbles / Game
11
30
Turnover EPA / Game
12
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
21
4th Down Efficiency
16
31
RZ Efficiency
14
1
Rams Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
12
Yards / Game
32
8
Passing Yards / Game
26
9
Rushing Yards / Game
26
10
EPA
EPA / Play
27
13
EPA / Pass
27
7
EPA / Rush
19
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
1
Interceptions / Game
22
11
Fumbles / Game
11
20
Turnover EPA / Game
4
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
2
4th Down Efficiency
1
30
RZ Efficiency
14
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Rams
2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U