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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ rams week 16, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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DEN logo
DENBroncos
4-10
14
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
51
LARRams
4-10
LAR logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
3
0
8
14
Rams
17
14
3
11
45

Spread

LAR logo
+3

Total

OVER
36.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
325
388
Total Plays
62
64
Yards / Play
5.2
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.29
+0.40
Passing Yards
219
--
Comp/Att
19/35(54%)
24/28(86%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.50
+0.50
Rushing Yards
106
158
Rush Attempts
21
36
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
18
26
Passing 1st downs
11
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
30%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
10
Red Zone %
100%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
1
5
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
4
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-22.85
--
Sacks
6
--
Sack Yards
-40
--
Sack EPA
-9.17
--
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
55
6
Penalty EPA
-8.51
-0.78

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model55.2%
Spread Pick
LAR logo
Rams+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.4%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-1
Home nfelo
1,482
Away nfelo
1,464
Home Field
+55.6
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-74.6
Home QB Adjustment
-79.9
Away QB Adjustment
-5.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-36.1
Model Spread
+2.0

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-5.3
Value
Ptile
09/25
-4.7
19
10/02
3.2
77
10/06
-7.5
8
10/17
-4.1
23
10/30
-3.5
25
11/13
-8.5
4
11/20
-2.3
34
11/27
-5.3
16
12/04
-0.5
48
12/11
-0.2
51
B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-79.9
Value
Ptile
12/25
-10.4
3
01/03
-13.7
1
09/11
-2.6
31
09/18
-3.1
28
09/25
-4.5
21
10/02
-6.7
10
10/09
-6.5
11
11/20
-8.3
5
12/08
-4.5
21
12/19
-9.3
3

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Rams Defense
Broncos logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
32
20
Yards / Game
21
18
Passing Yards / Game
9
11
Rushing Yards / Game
21
13

EPA

EPA / Play
28
19
EPA / Pass
29
26
EPA / Rush
27
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
3
Interceptions / Game
22
7
Fumbles / Game
11
30
Turnover EPA / Game
12
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
21
4th Down Efficiency
16
31
RZ Efficiency
14
1
Rams Offense vs Broncos Defense
Rams logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
27
12
Yards / Game
32
8
Passing Yards / Game
26
9
Rushing Yards / Game
26
10

EPA

EPA / Play
27
13
EPA / Pass
27
7
EPA / Rush
19
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
1
Interceptions / Game
22
11
Fumbles / Game
11
20
Turnover EPA / Game
4
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
2
4th Down Efficiency
1
30
RZ Efficiency
14
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
-3
L
L
U
10/17
-3
L
W
U
10/23
-7
L
L
U
10/30
4
W
W
U
11/13
-7
L
L
U
11/20
-6
L
L
U
11/27
-13
L
L
U
12/04
-1
L
W
U
12/11
-6
L
W
O
12/18
9
W
W
O
LAR logo

Rams

2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
-12
L
L
U
10/16
14
W
W
U
10/30
-17
L
L
O
11/06
-3
L
P
U
11/13
-10
L
L
O
11/20
-7
L
L
O
11/27
-16
L
W
U
12/04
-4
L
W
O
12/08
1
W
W
U
12/19
-12
L
L
U