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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ ravens week 3, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
2-0
14
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
61°F
5 mph
27
BALRavens
1-1
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
61°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
14
0
0
0
14
Ravens
10
10
7
0
27

Spread

BAL logo
-5.5

Total

UNDER
46

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
293
342
Total Plays
61
70
Yards / Play
4.8
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.17
+0.03
Passing Yards
173
265
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
25/40(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.21
+0.17
Rushing Yards
120
77
Rush Attempts
24
28
Yards / Rush
5.0
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
8
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
43%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.57
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-19
-12
Sack EPA
-5.51
-2.73
Penalties
13
7
Penalty Yards
120
52
Penalty EPA
-12.97
+1.40

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+138
Home nfelo
1,526
Away nfelo
1,449
Home Field
+77.8
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.5
Net QB Adjustment
-16.3
Home QB Adjustment
+5.0
Away QB Adjustment
+21.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

C. Keenum headshot

C. Keenum

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+21.3
Value
Ptile
11/23
5.8
87
12/03
2.9
73
12/10
-2.9
33
12/17
5.5
86
12/23
-6.5
14
12/31
0.2
54
01/14
0.9
59
01/21
-1.5
42
09/09
1.8
60
09/16
-1.7
35
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+5.0
Value
Ptile
11/05
-0.4
49
11/19
-3.6
27
11/27
-1.2
44
12/03
3.6
79
12/10
1.4
63
12/17
2.9
73
12/23
4.5
82
12/31
-2.2
37
09/09
6.1
85
09/13
-1.7
35

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Ravens Defense
Broncos logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
24
2
Yards / Game
19
1
Passing Yards / Game
14
2
Rushing Yards / Game
11
3

EPA

EPA / Play
22
3
EPA / Pass
26
4
EPA / Rush
8
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
21
Interceptions / Game
23
22
Fumbles / Game
13
24
Turnover EPA / Game
21
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
3
4th Down Efficiency
10
10
RZ Efficiency
18
21
Ravens Offense vs Broncos Defense
Ravens logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
13
12
Yards / Game
12
22
Passing Yards / Game
18
28
Rushing Yards / Game
2
22

EPA

EPA / Play
16
10
EPA / Pass
19
17
EPA / Rush
10
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
23
Interceptions / Game
6
3
Fumbles / Game
28
15
Turnover EPA / Game
15
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
17
4th Down Efficiency
7
13
RZ Efficiency
20
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

4-6
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/12
-25
L
L
O
11/19
-3
L
L
U
11/26
-7
L
L
U
12/03
-26
L
L
O
12/10
23
W
W
U
12/14
12
W
W
U
12/24
-16
L
L
U
12/31
-3
L
L
O
09/09
3
W
P
O
09/16
1
W
L
U
BAL logo

Ravens

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/05
-3
L
P
O
11/19
23
W
W
U
11/27
7
W
L
U
12/03
24
W
W
O
12/10
-1
L
W
O
12/17
17
W
W
U
12/23
7
W
L
U
12/31
-4
L
L
O
09/09
44
W
W
O
09/13
-11
L
L
O