DENBroncos
2-0
14
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
61°F
5 mph
27
BALRavens
1-1
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
61°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
14
0
0
0
14
Ravens
10
10
7
0
27
Spread
-5.5
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
293
342
Total Plays
61
70
Yards / Play
4.8
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.17
+0.03
Passing Yards
173
265
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
25/40(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.21
+0.17
Rushing Yards
120
77
Rush Attempts
24
28
Yards / Rush
5.0
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
8
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
43%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.57
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-19
-12
Sack EPA
-5.51
-2.73
Penalties
13
7
Penalty Yards
120
52
Penalty EPA
-12.97
+1.40
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+134
Home nfelo
1,527
Away nfelo
1,453
Home Field
+76.9
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.3
Net QB Adjustment
-16.3
Home QB Adjustment
+5.0
Away QB Adjustment
+21.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+21.3
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
2
Yards / Game
19
1
Passing Yards / Game
14
2
Rushing Yards / Game
11
3
EPA
EPA / Play
22
3
EPA / Pass
26
4
EPA / Rush
8
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
21
Interceptions / Game
23
22
Fumbles / Game
13
24
Turnover EPA / Game
21
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
3
4th Down Efficiency
10
10
RZ Efficiency
18
21
Ravens Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
12
Yards / Game
12
22
Passing Yards / Game
18
28
Rushing Yards / Game
2
22
EPA
EPA / Play
16
10
EPA / Pass
19
17
EPA / Rush
10
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
23
Interceptions / Game
6
3
Fumbles / Game
28
15
Turnover EPA / Game
15
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
17
4th Down Efficiency
7
13
RZ Efficiency
20
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
4-6
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Ravens
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U