DENBroncos
2-2
17
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
67°F
6 mph
31
BALRavens
3-1
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
67°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
7
0
10
17
Ravens
7
10
0
14
31
Spread
-8
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
346
415
Total Plays
52
73
Yards / Play
6.7
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.20
Passing Yards
307
182
Comp/Att
23/38(61%)
14/25(56%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.34
+0.14
Rushing Yards
39
233
Rush Attempts
13
47
Yards / Rush
3.0
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.36
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
28
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
1
17
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
38%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.79
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-14
Sack EPA
-1.17
-4.08
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
90
66
Penalty EPA
-8.67
-4.61
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market75.7%
Model77.5%
Spread Pick
Ravens-8.0
Expected Value
+2.4%
Cover Probability
51.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+243
Home nfelo
1,598
Away nfelo
1,442
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-19.0
Home QB Adjustment
+0.5
Away QB Adjustment
+19.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
214.9
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+19.4
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+0.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
3
Yards / Game
11
4
Passing Yards / Game
5
12
Rushing Yards / Game
26
3
EPA
EPA / Play
17
6
EPA / Pass
12
8
EPA / Rush
30
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
9
Interceptions / Game
7
7
Fumbles / Game
26
7
Turnover EPA / Game
16
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
12
4th Down Efficiency
30
18
RZ Efficiency
13
6
Ravens Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
32
Yards / Game
22
32
Passing Yards / Game
15
4
Rushing Yards / Game
16
31
EPA
EPA / Play
10
31
EPA / Pass
10
30
EPA / Rush
18
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
10
Interceptions / Game
3
31
Fumbles / Game
17
22
Turnover EPA / Game
23
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
16
4th Down Efficiency
19
27
RZ Efficiency
22
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Ravens
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U