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  1. nfelo...
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  3. broncos @ ravens week 5, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
2-2
17
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
67°F
6 mph
31
BALRavens
3-1
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
67°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
7
0
10
17
Ravens
7
10
0
14
31

Spread

BAL logo
-8

Total

OVER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
346
415
Total Plays
52
73
Yards / Play
6.7
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.20
Passing Yards
307
182
Comp/Att
23/38(61%)
14/25(56%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.34
+0.14
Rushing Yards
39
233
Rush Attempts
13
47
Yards / Rush
3.0
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.36
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
16
28
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
1
17
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
38%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.79
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-14
Sack EPA
-1.17
-4.08
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
90
66
Penalty EPA
-8.67
-4.61

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-9.0

Win Probability

Market75.7%
Model77.6%
Spread Pick
BAL logo
Ravens-8.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.4%
Cover Probability
51.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+246
Home nfelo
1,599
Away nfelo
1,441
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-19.0
Home QB Adjustment
+0.5
Away QB Adjustment
+19.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
216.1
Model Spread
-9.0

Quarterbacks

K. Orton headshot

K. Orton

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+19.4
Value
Ptile
11/26
0.5
53
12/06
-3.6
26
12/13
3.2
71
12/20
0.4
53
12/27
1.8
62
01/03
0.1
50
09/12
-0.2
48
09/19
6.0
87
09/26
8.5
94
10/03
1.9
60
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.5
Value
Ptile
12/13
1.4
59
12/20
6.9
88
12/27
-4.3
23
01/03
-7.2
10
01/10
-7.3
9
01/16
-5.3
18
09/13
-3.3
27
09/19
-10.6
2
09/26
7.5
92
10/03
2.0
61

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Ravens Defense
Broncos logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
19
3
Yards / Game
11
4
Passing Yards / Game
5
12
Rushing Yards / Game
26
3

EPA

EPA / Play
17
6
EPA / Pass
12
8
EPA / Rush
30
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
9
Interceptions / Game
7
7
Fumbles / Game
26
7
Turnover EPA / Game
16
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
12
4th Down Efficiency
30
18
RZ Efficiency
13
6
Ravens Offense vs Broncos Defense
Ravens logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
13
32
Yards / Game
22
32
Passing Yards / Game
15
4
Rushing Yards / Game
16
31

EPA

EPA / Play
10
31
EPA / Pass
10
30
EPA / Rush
18
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
10
Interceptions / Game
3
31
Fumbles / Game
17
22
Turnover EPA / Game
23
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
16
4th Down Efficiency
19
27
RZ Efficiency
22
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/26
20
W
W
U
12/06
31
W
W
O
12/13
-12
L
L
O
12/20
-1
L
L
O
12/27
-3
L
W
O
01/03
-20
L
L
O
09/12
-7
L
L
U
09/19
17
W
W
O
09/26
-14
L
L
U
10/03
6
W
W
O
BAL logo

Ravens

7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/13
45
W
W
O
12/20
24
W
W
U
12/27
-3
L
P
P
01/03
8
W
L
U
01/10
19
W
W
O
01/16
-17
L
L
U
09/13
1
W
W
U
09/19
-5
L
L
U
09/26
7
W
L
O
10/03
3
W
W
U