
DENBroncos
6-0
7
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
56°F
8 mph
30
BALRavens
3-3

TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
56°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
0
7
0
7
Ravens
3
3
10
14
30
Spread

-4
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General


Total Yards
200
292
Total Plays
58
62
Yards / Play
3.4
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.22
+0.16
Passing Yards
134
167
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
20/25(80%)
Yards / Pass
3.6
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.40
+0.08
Rushing Yards
66
125
Rush Attempts
19
35
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.01
Downs & Conversions


1st Downs
17
16
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
23%
61%
3rd Down Conversions
3
11
3rd Down Attempts
13
18
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays


Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.80
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-18
-8
Sack EPA
-2.76
-1.92
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
35
94
Penalty EPA
-2.60
-10.52
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner

BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model70.3%
Spread Pick

Ravens-4.0
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
55.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+189
Home nfelo
1,631
Away nfelo
1,531
Home Field
+76.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+12.7
Home QB Adjustment
+19.2
Away QB Adjustment
+6.5
Market Regression
+5.5
Final Difference
149.2
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+6.5

J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+19.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Ravens Defense


Total
Points / Game
20
2
Yards / Game
15
2
Passing Yards / Game
9
14
Rushing Yards / Game
18
3
EPA
EPA / Play
18
4
EPA / Pass
15
3
EPA / Rush
18
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
17
Interceptions / Game
7
5
Fumbles / Game
13
11
Turnover EPA / Game
20
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
8
4th Down Efficiency
25
10
RZ Efficiency
22
7
Ravens Offense vs Broncos Defense


Total
Points / Game
11
11
Yards / Game
14
7
Passing Yards / Game
19
4
Rushing Yards / Game
4
26
EPA
EPA / Play
11
12
EPA / Pass
14
6
EPA / Rush
4
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
14
Interceptions / Game
13
13
Fumbles / Game
6
7
Turnover EPA / Game
27
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
12
4th Down Efficiency
24
15
RZ Efficiency
15
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

Broncos
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
1-5-4
O/U

Ravens
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
4-2-4
O/U