DEN logo
DEN
6-0
7
30
BAL
3-3
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
56°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
0
7
0
7
Ravens
3
3
10
14
30

Spread

BAL logo
-4

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
200
292
Total Plays
58
62
Yards / Play
3.4
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.22
+0.16
Passing Yards
134
167
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
20/25(80%)
Yards / Pass
3.6
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.40
+0.08
Rushing Yards
66
125
Rush Attempts
19
35
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
17
16
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
23%
61%
3rd Down Conversions
3
11
3rd Down Attempts
13
18
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.80
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-18
-8
Sack EPA
-2.76
-1.92
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
35
94
Penalty EPA
-2.60
-10.52

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model70.3%
Spread Pick
BAL logo
Ravens-4.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
55.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+189
Home nfelo
1,631
Away nfelo
1,531
Home Field
+76.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+12.7
Home QB Adjustment
+19.2
Away QB Adjustment
+6.5
Market Regression
+5.5
Final Difference
149.2
Model Spread
-6.5

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Ravens Defense
Broncos logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
20
2
Yards / Game
15
2
Passing Yards / Game
9
14
Rushing Yards / Game
18
3

EPA

EPA / Play
18
4
EPA / Pass
15
3
EPA / Rush
18
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
17
Interceptions / Game
7
5
Fumbles / Game
13
11
Turnover EPA / Game
20
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
8
4th Down Efficiency
25
10
RZ Efficiency
22
7
Ravens Offense vs Broncos Defense
Ravens logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
11
11
Yards / Game
14
7
Passing Yards / Game
19
4
Rushing Yards / Game
4
26

EPA

EPA / Play
11
12
EPA / Pass
14
6
EPA / Rush
4
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
14
Interceptions / Game
13
13
Fumbles / Game
6
7
Turnover EPA / Game
27
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
12
4th Down Efficiency
24
15
RZ Efficiency
15
14