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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ ravens week 15, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
10-3
34
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
53°F
7 mph
17
BALRavens
9-4
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
53°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
8
14
3
28
Ravens
0
0
3
14
17

Spread

DEN logo
-3

Total

OVER
48

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
350
278
Total Plays
75
62
Yards / Play
4.7
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.29
Passing Yards
187
222
Comp/Att
17/28(61%)
20/40(50%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.45
Rushing Yards
163
56
Rush Attempts
45
19
Yards / Rush
3.6
2.9
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.43
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
21
12
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
12
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
31%
8%
3rd Down Conversions
5
1
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-17.29
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-17
-32
Sack EPA
-3.13
-1.63
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
51
61
Penalty EPA
-4.59
-6.34

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model50.2%
Spread Pick
BAL logo
Ravens+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.9%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+60
Home nfelo
1,585
Away nfelo
1,616
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-17.0
Home QB Adjustment
-0.6
Away QB Adjustment
+16.4
Market Regression
-26.6
Final Difference
-1.1
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+16.4
Value
Ptile
09/30
10.2
96
10/07
8.1
93
10/15
7.0
90
10/28
7.6
92
11/04
5.6
85
11/11
4.6
79
11/18
0.5
53
11/25
0.7
54
12/02
3.5
72
12/06
-0.7
45
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
Value
Ptile
09/27
1.9
62
10/07
-7.5
8
10/14
1.6
60
10/21
-9.1
4
11/04
-1.0
42
11/11
8.0
92
11/18
-1.8
38
11/25
-1.5
39
12/02
-5.0
19
12/09
0.7
54

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Ravens Defense
Broncos logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
2
12
Yards / Game
4
23
Passing Yards / Game
29
25
Rushing Yards / Game
15
22

EPA

EPA / Play
4
16
EPA / Pass
2
14
EPA / Rush
26
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
19
Interceptions / Game
8
13
Fumbles / Game
27
11
Turnover EPA / Game
12
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
11
4th Down Efficiency
3
13
RZ Efficiency
4
1
Ravens Offense vs Broncos Defense
Ravens logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
9
4
Yards / Game
11
2
Passing Yards / Game
17
19
Rushing Yards / Game
11
4

EPA

EPA / Play
10
3
EPA / Pass
13
6
EPA / Rush
17
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
31
Interceptions / Game
4
14
Fumbles / Game
12
21
Turnover EPA / Game
27
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
1
4th Down Efficiency
26
5
RZ Efficiency
6
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/30
31
W
W
U
10/07
-10
L
L
O
10/15
11
W
W
O
10/28
20
W
W
U
11/04
8
W
W
O
11/11
22
W
W
O
11/18
7
W
L
O
11/25
8
W
L
U
12/02
8
W
L
O
12/06
13
W
W
U
BAL logo

Ravens

7-3
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/27
7
W
L
U
10/07
3
W
L
U
10/14
2
W
L
O
10/21
-30
L
L
O
11/04
10
W
W
U
11/11
35
W
W
O
11/18
3
W
P
U
11/25
3
W
W
U
12/02
-3
L
L
O
12/09
-3
L
L
O