DENBroncos
10-3
34
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
53°F
7 mph
17
BALRavens
9-4
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
53°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
8
14
3
28
Ravens
0
0
3
14
17
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
350
278
Total Plays
75
62
Yards / Play
4.7
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.29
Passing Yards
187
222
Comp/Att
17/28(61%)
20/40(50%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.45
Rushing Yards
163
56
Rush Attempts
45
19
Yards / Rush
3.6
2.9
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.43
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
12
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
12
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
31%
8%
3rd Down Conversions
5
1
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-17.29
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-17
-32
Sack EPA
-3.13
-1.63
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
51
61
Penalty EPA
-4.59
-6.34
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model50.2%
Spread Pick
Ravens+3.0
Expected Value
+8.9%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+59
Home nfelo
1,588
Away nfelo
1,619
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-17.0
Home QB Adjustment
-0.6
Away QB Adjustment
+16.4
Market Regression
-26.6
Final Difference
-1.3
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+16.4
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
12
Yards / Game
4
23
Passing Yards / Game
29
25
Rushing Yards / Game
15
22
EPA
EPA / Play
4
16
EPA / Pass
2
14
EPA / Rush
26
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
19
Interceptions / Game
8
13
Fumbles / Game
27
11
Turnover EPA / Game
12
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
11
4th Down Efficiency
3
13
RZ Efficiency
4
1
Ravens Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
4
Yards / Game
11
2
Passing Yards / Game
17
19
Rushing Yards / Game
11
4
EPA
EPA / Play
10
3
EPA / Pass
13
6
EPA / Rush
17
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
31
Interceptions / Game
4
14
Fumbles / Game
12
21
Turnover EPA / Game
27
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
1
4th Down Efficiency
26
5
RZ Efficiency
6
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Ravens
7-3
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U