DENBroncos
1-1
14
TBD
Nissan Stadium
73°F
11 mph
17
TENTitans
1-1
TBD
Nissan Stadium
73°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
7
0
7
0
14
Titans
0
10
0
7
17
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
231
333
Total Plays
63
61
Yards / Play
3.7
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.01
Passing Yards
172
295
Comp/Att
24/39(62%)
27/36(75%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.30
Rushing Yards
59
38
Rush Attempts
23
23
Yards / Rush
2.6
1.7
EPA / Rush
-0.45
-0.38
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
2
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
53%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
8
8
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-7.26
-10.50
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-1
-16
Sack EPA
-0.69
-7.89
Penalties
1
11
Penalty Yards
--
80
Penalty EPA
--
-9.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+151
Home nfelo
1,480
Away nfelo
1,418
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+15.9
Home QB Adjustment
+10.4
Away QB Adjustment
-5.5
Market Regression
+47.8
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-5.5
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+10.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
8
Yards / Game
20
18
Passing Yards / Game
32
13
Rushing Yards / Game
1
22
EPA
EPA / Play
23
15
EPA / Pass
27
17
EPA / Rush
10
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
31
Interceptions / Game
5
24
Fumbles / Game
32
4
Turnover EPA / Game
9
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
23
4th Down Efficiency
28
12
RZ Efficiency
26
10
Titans Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
26
Yards / Game
17
23
Passing Yards / Game
11
24
Rushing Yards / Game
32
23
EPA
EPA / Play
16
22
EPA / Pass
16
24
EPA / Rush
28
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
11
Interceptions / Game
13
27
Fumbles / Game
12
22
Turnover EPA / Game
19
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
8
4th Down Efficiency
1
6
RZ Efficiency
5
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Titans
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U