DENBroncos
3-5
10
TBD
Nissan Stadium
36°F
9 mph
17
TENTitans
5-3
TBD
Nissan Stadium
36°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
10
0
0
10
Titans
0
7
7
3
17
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
313
307
Total Plays
73
60
Yards / Play
4.3
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.06
Passing Yards
248
244
Comp/Att
21/42(50%)
19/36(53%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.15
+0.13
Rushing Yards
65
63
Rush Attempts
25
23
Yards / Rush
2.6
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.43
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
14
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
24%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
16
Red Zone %
NaN%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-1.92
-4.88
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-38
-11
Sack EPA
-8.96
-2.02
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
50
60
Penalty EPA
-7.29
-8.52
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+81
Home nfelo
1,522
Away nfelo
1,469
Home Field
+15.8
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-30.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
+12.3
Home QB Adjustment
+2.4
Away QB Adjustment
-9.9
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-9.9
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
12
Yards / Game
21
23
Passing Yards / Game
9
32
Rushing Yards / Game
21
1
EPA
EPA / Play
28
16
EPA / Pass
29
28
EPA / Rush
27
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
6
Interceptions / Game
22
13
Fumbles / Game
11
14
Turnover EPA / Game
12
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
3
4th Down Efficiency
16
32
RZ Efficiency
14
14
Titans Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
12
Yards / Game
30
8
Passing Yards / Game
24
9
Rushing Yards / Game
13
10
EPA
EPA / Play
25
13
EPA / Pass
23
7
EPA / Rush
26
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
1
Interceptions / Game
9
11
Fumbles / Game
11
20
Turnover EPA / Game
13
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
2
4th Down Efficiency
14
30
RZ Efficiency
6
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Titans
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U