DENBroncos
8-4
10
TBD
Nissan Stadium
50°F
5 mph
13
TENTitans
6-6
TBD
Nissan Stadium
50°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
0
0
10
10
Titans
10
3
0
0
13
Spread
-2
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
348
253
Total Plays
64
65
Yards / Play
5.4
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.14
Passing Yards
330
73
Comp/Att
36/52(69%)
6/21(29%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
3.5
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.55
Rushing Yards
18
180
Rush Attempts
9
42
Yards / Rush
2.0
4.3
EPA / Rush
-1.13
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
16
Passing 1st downs
19
4
Rushing 1st downs
--
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
27%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-7.51
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-20
-15
Sack EPA
-5.88
-3.43
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
87
--
Penalty EPA
-6.46
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model50.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-21
Home nfelo
1,453
Away nfelo
1,587
Home Field
+83.8
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
+29.3
Home QB Adjustment
+37.1
Away QB Adjustment
+7.7
Market Regression
-0.4
Final Difference
5.5
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
T. Siemian
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+37.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
16
Yards / Game
27
20
Passing Yards / Game
19
24
Rushing Yards / Game
27
4
EPA
EPA / Play
25
20
EPA / Pass
23
23
EPA / Rush
30
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
25
Interceptions / Game
12
20
Fumbles / Game
31
30
Turnover EPA / Game
18
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
8
4th Down Efficiency
11
18
RZ Efficiency
27
7
Titans Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
3
Yards / Game
11
4
Passing Yards / Game
31
5
Rushing Yards / Game
3
28
EPA
EPA / Play
13
1
EPA / Pass
13
1
EPA / Rush
11
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
9
Interceptions / Game
12
14
Fumbles / Game
16
2
Turnover EPA / Game
17
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
5
4th Down Efficiency
30
8
RZ Efficiency
1
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Titans
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
8-2
O/U