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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ titans week 14, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
8-4
10
TBD
Nissan Stadium
50°F
5 mph
13
TENTitans
6-6
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
50°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
0
0
10
10
Titans
10
3
0
0
13

Spread

TEN logo
-2

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
348
253
Total Plays
64
65
Yards / Play
5.4
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.14
Passing Yards
330
73
Comp/Att
36/52(69%)
6/21(29%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
3.5
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.55
Rushing Yards
18
180
Rush Attempts
9
42
Yards / Rush
2.0
4.3
EPA / Rush
-1.13
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
19
16
Passing 1st downs
19
4
Rushing 1st downs
--
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
27%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-7.51
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-20
-15
Sack EPA
-5.88
-3.43
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
87
--
Penalty EPA
-6.46
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-0.5

Win Probability

Market54.2%
Model51.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-16
Home nfelo
1,454
Away nfelo
1,584
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+29.3
Home QB Adjustment
+37.1
Away QB Adjustment
+7.7
Market Regression
+0.1
Final Difference
7.8
Model Spread
-0.5

Quarterbacks

T. Siemian headshot

T. Siemian

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
Value
Ptile
09/08
-2.8
27
09/18
-0.6
44
09/25
7.5
91
10/02
-6.4
10
10/13
-1.0
41
10/24
-0.5
45
10/30
-3.8
21
11/06
-2.2
32
11/13
-7.9
6
11/27
3.6
75
M. Mariota headshot

M. Mariota

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+37.1
Value
Ptile
09/25
-6.2
11
10/02
-3.7
22
10/09
9.5
96
10/16
6.2
87
10/23
-0.2
46
10/27
6.2
87
11/06
6.3
88
11/13
7.5
91
11/20
1.2
58
11/27
5.9
86

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Titans Defense
Broncos logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
21
16
Yards / Game
27
20
Passing Yards / Game
19
24
Rushing Yards / Game
27
4

EPA

EPA / Play
25
20
EPA / Pass
23
23
EPA / Rush
30
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
25
Interceptions / Game
12
20
Fumbles / Game
31
30
Turnover EPA / Game
18
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
8
4th Down Efficiency
11
18
RZ Efficiency
27
7
Titans Offense vs Broncos Defense
Titans logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
14
3
Yards / Game
11
4
Passing Yards / Game
31
5
Rushing Yards / Game
3
28

EPA

EPA / Play
13
1
EPA / Pass
13
1
EPA / Rush
11
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
9
Interceptions / Game
12
14
Fumbles / Game
16
2
Turnover EPA / Game
17
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
5
4th Down Efficiency
30
8
RZ Efficiency
1
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/25
12
W
W
O
10/02
20
W
W
U
10/09
-7
L
L
U
10/13
-8
L
L
U
10/24
18
W
W
U
10/30
8
W
W
O
11/06
-10
L
L
O
11/13
2
W
W
U
11/27
-3
L
L
O
12/04
10
W
W
U
TEN logo

Titans

5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/25
-7
L
L
U
10/02
-7
L
L
O
10/09
13
W
W
O
10/16
2
W
L
O
10/23
-8
L
L
O
10/27
14
W
W
O
11/06
-8
L
L
O
11/13
22
W
W
O
11/20
-7
L
L
U
11/27
6
W
L
O