CLEBrowns
2-2
3
TBD
Levi's Stadium
87°F
8 mph
31
SF49ers
3-0
TBD
Levi's Stadium
87°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
3
0
0
3
49ers
14
7
7
3
31
Spread
-5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
180
446
Total Plays
46
71
Yards / Play
3.9
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.52
+0.10
Passing Yards
78
171
Comp/Att
9/24(38%)
20/29(69%)
Yards / Pass
3.3
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.95
+0.23
Rushing Yards
102
275
Rush Attempts
18
40
Yards / Rush
5.7
6.9
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
9
22
Passing 1st downs
6
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
9%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
1
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-16.18
+5.49
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-42
-10
Sack EPA
-9.81
-2.95
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
55
--
Penalty EPA
-3.64
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+99
Home nfelo
1,507
Away nfelo
1,518
Home Field
+100.3
Base HFA
+55.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+15.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+29.5
Net QB Adjustment
+9.8
Home QB Adjustment
+2.6
Away QB Adjustment
-7.2
Market Regression
+58.4
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-7.2
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
7
Yards / Game
18
2
Passing Yards / Game
14
2
Rushing Yards / Game
12
12
EPA
EPA / Play
22
3
EPA / Pass
20
2
EPA / Rush
17
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
22
Interceptions / Game
30
7
Fumbles / Game
2
5
Turnover EPA / Game
7
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
2
4th Down Efficiency
23
8
RZ Efficiency
13
27
49ers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
20
Yards / Game
8
21
Passing Yards / Game
15
10
Rushing Yards / Game
2
29
EPA
EPA / Play
4
20
EPA / Pass
5
15
EPA / Rush
8
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
17
Interceptions / Game
20
10
Fumbles / Game
26
25
Turnover EPA / Game
13
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
12
4th Down Efficiency
12
4
RZ Efficiency
19
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
49ers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U