CLEBrowns
1-6
6
TBD
Soldier Field
50°F
8 mph
30
CHIBears
3-3
TBD
Soldier Field
50°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
0
6
0
6
Bears
6
10
7
1
24
Spread
-12
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
191
369
Total Plays
50
71
Yards / Play
3.8
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.63
-0.11
Passing Yards
74
199
Comp/Att
7/20(35%)
17/30(57%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
6.6
EPA / Pass
-1.34
-0.22
Rushing Yards
117
170
Rush Attempts
29
37
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
9
20
Passing 1st downs
2
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
9%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
1
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
100%
29%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-22.76
-3.95
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-11
-26
Sack EPA
-0.59
-5.54
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
30
35
Penalty EPA
-3.55
-2.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-12.0
Model
-12.0
Win Probability
Market83.4%
Model83.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+278
Home nfelo
1,520
Away nfelo
1,326
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+32.1
Home QB Adjustment
+17.3
Away QB Adjustment
-14.8
Market Regression
-54.5
Final Difference
280.4
Model Spread
-12.0
Quarterbacks
D. Anderson
Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-14.8
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+17.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
21
Yards / Game
32
17
Passing Yards / Game
30
19
Rushing Yards / Game
8
24
EPA
EPA / Play
27
18
EPA / Pass
32
20
EPA / Rush
15
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
14
Interceptions / Game
22
22
Fumbles / Game
25
3
Turnover EPA / Game
6
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
27
4th Down Efficiency
4
11
RZ Efficiency
28
31
Bears Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
21
Yards / Game
23
31
Passing Yards / Game
11
28
Rushing Yards / Game
29
28
EPA
EPA / Play
24
24
EPA / Pass
23
29
EPA / Rush
21
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
23
Interceptions / Game
30
29
Fumbles / Game
4
28
Turnover EPA / Game
3
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
17
4th Down Efficiency
25
15
RZ Efficiency
25
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
3-4-3
O/U
Bears
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-3-4
O/U