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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ bears week 15, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
3-10
3
TBD
Soldier Field
8°F
6 mph
31
CHIBears
9-4
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
8°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
0
3
0
3
Bears
14
0
14
3
31

Spread

CHI logo
-7.5

Total

UNDER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
192
361
Total Plays
56
64
Yards / Play
3.4
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.50
+0.03
Passing Yards
142
219
Comp/Att
18/35(51%)
17/28(61%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.66
+0.12
Rushing Yards
50
142
Rush Attempts
16
33
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
9
21
Passing 1st downs
7
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
29%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-15.19
--
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-35
-23
Sack EPA
-9.86
-5.96
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
21
--
Penalty EPA
-2.95
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+161
Home nfelo
1,490
Away nfelo
1,399
Home Field
+36.5
Base HFA
+44.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.0
Net QB Adjustment
+34.4
Home QB Adjustment
+9.9
Away QB Adjustment
-24.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

S. Sanders headshot

S. Sanders

Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-24.5
Value
Ptile
11/23
-3.8
25
11/30
-3.6
26
12/07
5.9
88
C. Williams headshot

C. Williams

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+9.9
Value
Ptile
09/28
-3.2
28
10/13
-0.2
49
10/19
-6.3
11
10/26
0.6
56
11/02
5.8
88
11/09
5.5
86
11/16
-3.4
26
11/23
3.4
75
11/28
-5.2
16
12/07
0.1
52

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Bears Defense
Browns logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
31
23
Yards / Game
30
28
Passing Yards / Game
21
12
Rushing Yards / Game
27
28

EPA

EPA / Play
32
16
EPA / Pass
32
15
EPA / Rush
24
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
30
Interceptions / Game
29
1
Fumbles / Game
11
4
Turnover EPA / Game
5
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
22
4th Down Efficiency
31
9
RZ Efficiency
26
16
Bears Offense vs Browns Defense
Bears logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
9
13
Yards / Game
3
4
Passing Yards / Game
26
3
Rushing Yards / Game
3
15

EPA

EPA / Play
11
4
EPA / Pass
10
5
EPA / Rush
4
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
7
Interceptions / Game
1
17
Fumbles / Game
4
19
Turnover EPA / Game
32
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
8
4th Down Efficiency
21
5
RZ Efficiency
19
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
-24
L
L
U
10/05
-4
L
L
O
10/12
-14
L
L
U
10/19
25
W
W
O
10/26
-19
L
L
O
11/09
-7
L
L
O
11/16
-7
L
W
O
11/23
14
W
W
U
11/30
-18
L
L
U
12/07
-2
L
L
O
CHI logo

Bears

8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
1
W
W
O
10/13
1
W
W
U
10/19
12
W
W
U
10/26
-14
L
L
O
11/02
5
W
W
O
11/09
4
W
L
U
11/16
2
W
W
U
11/23
3
W
P
O
11/28
9
W
W
U
12/07
-7
L
L
O