CLEBrowns
0-14
3
TBD
Soldier Field
24°F
8 mph
20
CHIBears
4-10
TBD
Soldier Field
24°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
3
0
0
3
Bears
6
0
14
0
20
Spread
-5.5
Total
UNDER
37
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
254
258
Total Plays
57
59
Yards / Play
4.5
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.37
-0.04
Passing Yards
178
161
Comp/Att
18/36(50%)
14/23(61%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.49
-0.11
Rushing Yards
76
97
Rush Attempts
20
31
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
16
Passing 1st downs
8
7
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
31%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
NaN%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
--
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.39
--
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-4
-32
Sack EPA
-1.05
-8.40
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
60
--
Penalty EPA
-5.85
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+174
Home nfelo
1,410
Away nfelo
1,292
Home Field
+45.9
Base HFA
+55.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.0
Net QB Adjustment
+9.8
Home QB Adjustment
+10.2
Away QB Adjustment
+0.3
Market Regression
-40.1
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
D. Kizer
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+0.3
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+10.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
8
Yards / Game
24
7
Passing Yards / Game
15
21
Rushing Yards / Game
18
10
EPA
EPA / Play
31
11
EPA / Pass
32
13
EPA / Rush
4
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
16
Interceptions / Game
32
29
Fumbles / Game
25
1
Turnover EPA / Game
1
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
20
4th Down Efficiency
12
22
RZ Efficiency
24
10
Bears Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
31
Yards / Game
30
13
Passing Yards / Game
24
31
Rushing Yards / Game
16
7
EPA
EPA / Play
27
27
EPA / Pass
28
27
EPA / Rush
17
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
6
Interceptions / Game
13
31
Fumbles / Game
25
18
Turnover EPA / Game
15
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
23
4th Down Efficiency
23
18
RZ Efficiency
5
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
0-10
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bears
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U