CLEBrowns
2-6
10
TBD
Paycor Stadium
71°F
4 mph
31
CINBengals
7-0
TBD
Paycor Stadium
71°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
7
0
0
10
Bengals
7
7
3
14
31
Spread
-13
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
213
371
Total Plays
53
66
Yards / Play
4.0
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.22
Passing Yards
144
219
Comp/Att
15/33(45%)
21/27(78%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
8.1
EPA / Pass
-0.15
+0.58
Rushing Yards
69
152
Rush Attempts
17
37
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
23
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
31%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-24
-15
Sack EPA
-4.55
-3.89
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
28
--
Penalty EPA
-5.61
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-13.0
Model
-13.0
Win Probability
Market84.9%
Model84.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+307
Home nfelo
1,601
Away nfelo
1,391
Home Field
+55.5
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
-27.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+40.9
Home QB Adjustment
+18.9
Away QB Adjustment
-22.0
Market Regression
+30.0
Final Difference
300.0
Model Spread
-13.0
Quarterbacks
J. Manziel
Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
-22.0
Value
Ptile
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+18.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
2
Yards / Game
26
13
Passing Yards / Game
12
24
Rushing Yards / Game
22
7
EPA
EPA / Play
29
7
EPA / Pass
28
5
EPA / Rush
18
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
23
Interceptions / Game
11
3
Fumbles / Game
31
27
Turnover EPA / Game
6
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
14
4th Down Efficiency
26
16
RZ Efficiency
32
4
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
29
Yards / Game
16
28
Passing Yards / Game
30
2
Rushing Yards / Game
13
30
EPA
EPA / Play
6
29
EPA / Pass
2
30
EPA / Rush
23
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
2
Interceptions / Game
6
20
Fumbles / Game
25
9
Turnover EPA / Game
25
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
21
4th Down Efficiency
4
27
RZ Efficiency
5
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bengals
8-2
SU
7-2-1
ATS
6-4
O/U