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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ bengals week 10, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
5-3
24
TBD
Paycor Stadium
42°F
17 mph
3
CINBengals
5-2
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
42°F
17 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
10
7
0
24
Bengals
3
0
0
0
3

Spread

CLE logo
+6.5

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
368
165
Total Plays
75
63
Yards / Play
4.9
2.6
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.39
Passing Yards
--
79
Comp/Att
15/23(65%)
13/39(33%)
Yards / Pass
--
2.0
EPA / Pass
+0.44
-0.68
Rushing Yards
170
86
Rush Attempts
52
22
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
21
11
Passing 1st downs
11
4
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
44%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
17
Red Zone %
75%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
0
5
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-9.82
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-14
Sack EPA
--
-3.30
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
62
55
Penalty EPA
-4.62
-8.65

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model68.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+108
Home nfelo
1,522
Away nfelo
1,474
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.4
Home QB Adjustment
+4.3
Away QB Adjustment
-0.0
Market Regression
+2.9
Final Difference
137.6
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

B. Hoyer headshot

B. Hoyer

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-0.0
Value
Ptile
09/29
3.1
71
10/03
-3.9
25
09/07
-1.8
37
09/14
-0.3
48
09/21
5.1
82
10/05
2.8
70
10/12
-0.7
45
10/19
-10.3
2
10/26
1.3
59
11/02
-4.0
26
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.3
Value
Ptile
12/29
0.8
55
01/05
-2.3
37
09/07
4.6
80
09/14
1.9
65
09/21
-2.4
33
10/05
3.1
72
10/12
5.6
84
10/19
-7.7
8
10/26
3.8
76
11/02
-1.8
36

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Browns logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
27
13
Yards / Game
23
23
Passing Yards / Game
22
4
Rushing Yards / Game
16
20

EPA

EPA / Play
27
15
EPA / Pass
22
13
EPA / Rush
23
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
30
Interceptions / Game
19
6
Fumbles / Game
4
28
Turnover EPA / Game
25
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
7
4th Down Efficiency
27
22
RZ Efficiency
23
7
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Bengals logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
16
9
Yards / Game
18
22
Passing Yards / Game
31
17
Rushing Yards / Game
6
32

EPA

EPA / Play
15
8
EPA / Pass
23
3
EPA / Rush
3
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
20
Interceptions / Game
19
2
Fumbles / Game
18
16
Turnover EPA / Game
10
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
11
4th Down Efficiency
10
29
RZ Efficiency
10
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

5-5
SU
4-4-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
-11
L
L
U
12/29
-13
L
L
U
09/07
-3
L
W
O
09/14
2
W
W
O
09/21
-2
L
P
O
10/05
1
W
P
O
10/12
21
W
W
U
10/19
-18
L
L
U
10/26
10
W
W
U
11/02
5
W
L
U
CIN logo

Bengals

6-3-1
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
17
W
W
O
01/05
-17
L
L
U
09/07
7
W
W
U
09/14
14
W
W
U
09/21
26
W
W
U
10/05
-26
L
L
O
10/12
0
T
L
O
10/19
-27
L
L
U
10/26
3
W
W
O
11/02
10
W
P
O