CLEBrowns
5-3
24
TBD
Paycor Stadium
42°F
17 mph
3
CINBengals
5-2
TBD
Paycor Stadium
42°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
10
7
0
24
Bengals
3
0
0
0
3
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
368
165
Total Plays
75
63
Yards / Play
4.9
2.6
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.39
Passing Yards
--
79
Comp/Att
15/23(65%)
13/39(33%)
Yards / Pass
--
2.0
EPA / Pass
+0.44
-0.68
Rushing Yards
170
86
Rush Attempts
52
22
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
11
Passing 1st downs
11
4
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
44%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
17
Red Zone %
75%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
5
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-9.82
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-14
Sack EPA
--
-3.30
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
62
55
Penalty EPA
-4.62
-8.65
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model68.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+110
Home nfelo
1,523
Away nfelo
1,474
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.4
Home QB Adjustment
+4.3
Away QB Adjustment
-0.0
Market Regression
+3.1
Final Difference
138.0
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-0.0
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
13
Yards / Game
23
23
Passing Yards / Game
22
4
Rushing Yards / Game
16
20
EPA
EPA / Play
27
15
EPA / Pass
22
13
EPA / Rush
23
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
30
Interceptions / Game
19
6
Fumbles / Game
4
28
Turnover EPA / Game
25
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
7
4th Down Efficiency
27
22
RZ Efficiency
23
7
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
9
Yards / Game
18
22
Passing Yards / Game
31
17
Rushing Yards / Game
6
32
EPA
EPA / Play
15
8
EPA / Pass
23
3
EPA / Rush
3
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
20
Interceptions / Game
19
2
Fumbles / Game
18
16
Turnover EPA / Game
10
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
11
4th Down Efficiency
10
29
RZ Efficiency
10
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
5-5
SU
4-4-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bengals
6-3-1
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U