CLEBrowns
4-5
20
TBD
Paycor Stadium
62°F
7 mph
41
CINBengals
6-4
TBD
Paycor Stadium
62°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
0
7
0
14
Bengals
0
19
0
10
29
Spread
-4.5
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
330
224
Total Plays
79
59
Yards / Play
4.2
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.48
-0.31
Passing Yards
228
--
Comp/Att
27/56(48%)
14/28(50%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.52
-0.55
Rushing Yards
102
106
Rush Attempts
19
31
Yards / Rush
5.4
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.14
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
10
Passing 1st downs
10
5
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
22%
7%
3rd Down Conversions
4
1
3rd Down Attempts
18
14
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
3
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-16.81
-12.81
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-20
--
Sack EPA
-7.73
--
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
40
64
Penalty EPA
-5.20
-1.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+74
Home nfelo
1,549
Away nfelo
1,448
Home Field
+7.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-34.0
Home QB Adjustment
+6.6
Away QB Adjustment
+40.6
Market Regression
+6.6
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
J. Campbell
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+40.6
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+6.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
5
Yards / Game
18
4
Passing Yards / Game
8
1
Rushing Yards / Game
28
8
EPA
EPA / Play
25
3
EPA / Pass
25
3
EPA / Rush
14
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
29
Interceptions / Game
24
8
Fumbles / Game
9
15
Turnover EPA / Game
14
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
2
4th Down Efficiency
17
5
RZ Efficiency
22
13
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
23
Yards / Game
9
9
Passing Yards / Game
22
9
Rushing Yards / Game
18
18
EPA
EPA / Play
14
17
EPA / Pass
14
12
EPA / Rush
20
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
3
Interceptions / Game
26
19
Fumbles / Game
24
24
Turnover EPA / Game
5
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
31
4th Down Efficiency
13
16
RZ Efficiency
1
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bengals
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U