CLEBrowns
1-9
7
TBD
Paycor Stadium
59°F
15 mph
16
CINBengals
7-3
TBD
Paycor Stadium
59°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
0
7
0
7
Bengals
3
10
3
0
16
Spread
+12.5
Total
UNDER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
169
306
Total Plays
54
72
Yards / Play
3.1
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.03
Passing Yards
111
96
Comp/Att
16/35(46%)
13/24(54%)
Yards / Pass
3.2
4.0
EPA / Pass
-0.32
+0.01
Rushing Yards
58
210
Rush Attempts
18
45
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
21
Passing 1st downs
6
7
Rushing 1st downs
4
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
29%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-14
Sack EPA
-2.36
-0.79
Penalties
4
10
Penalty Yards
30
75
Penalty EPA
-2.56
-8.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-15.0
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.5
Win Probability
Market84.1%
Model84.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+262
Home nfelo
1,509
Away nfelo
1,298
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.8
Home QB Adjustment
+14.0
Away QB Adjustment
+19.8
Market Regression
-35.4
Final Difference
289.4
Model Spread
-12.5
Quarterbacks
B. Quinn
Proj. Value
-4.9
Team Elo Adj
+19.8
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+14.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
5
Yards / Game
32
5
Passing Yards / Game
30
12
Rushing Yards / Game
8
8
EPA
EPA / Play
27
7
EPA / Pass
32
10
EPA / Rush
15
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
22
Interceptions / Game
22
11
Fumbles / Game
25
32
Turnover EPA / Game
6
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
13
4th Down Efficiency
4
12
RZ Efficiency
28
9
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
21
Yards / Game
24
31
Passing Yards / Game
21
28
Rushing Yards / Game
7
28
EPA
EPA / Play
19
24
EPA / Pass
16
29
EPA / Rush
12
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
23
Interceptions / Game
8
29
Fumbles / Game
21
28
Turnover EPA / Game
17
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
17
4th Down Efficiency
4
15
RZ Efficiency
21
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bengals
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U