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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ bengals week 12, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
1-9
7
TBD
Paycor Stadium
59°F
15 mph
16
CINBengals
7-3
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
59°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
0
7
0
7
Bengals
3
10
3
0
16

Spread

CLE logo
+12.5

Total

UNDER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
169
306
Total Plays
54
72
Yards / Play
3.1
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.03
Passing Yards
111
96
Comp/Att
16/35(46%)
13/24(54%)
Yards / Pass
3.2
4.0
EPA / Pass
-0.32
+0.01
Rushing Yards
58
210
Rush Attempts
18
45
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
11
21
Passing 1st downs
6
7
Rushing 1st downs
4
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
29%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-14
Sack EPA
-2.36
-0.79
Penalties
4
10
Penalty Yards
30
75
Penalty EPA
-2.56
-8.94

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-15.0
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.5

Win Probability

Market84.1%
Model84.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+264
Home nfelo
1,509
Away nfelo
1,295
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.8
Home QB Adjustment
+14.0
Away QB Adjustment
+19.8
Market Regression
-36.1
Final Difference
289.4
Model Spread
-12.5

Quarterbacks

B. Quinn headshot

B. Quinn

Proj. Value
-4.9
Team Elo Adj
+19.8
Value
Ptile
11/06
5.1
85
11/17
-4.1
21
11/23
-8.5
5
09/13
-3.0
31
09/20
-7.1
11
09/27
-5.2
19
11/16
-13.0
1
11/22
7.1
90
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+14.0
Value
Ptile
09/13
-4.9
21
09/20
1.9
63
09/27
-0.8
45
10/04
-0.3
47
10/11
1.9
63
10/18
1.2
57
10/25
11.6
98
11/08
2.5
66
11/15
-2.0
38
11/22
0.8
55

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Browns logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
29
5
Yards / Game
32
5
Passing Yards / Game
30
12
Rushing Yards / Game
8
8

EPA

EPA / Play
27
7
EPA / Pass
32
10
EPA / Rush
15
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
22
Interceptions / Game
22
11
Fumbles / Game
25
32
Turnover EPA / Game
6
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
13
4th Down Efficiency
4
12
RZ Efficiency
28
9
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Bengals logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
22
21
Yards / Game
24
31
Passing Yards / Game
21
28
Rushing Yards / Game
7
28

EPA

EPA / Play
19
24
EPA / Pass
16
29
EPA / Rush
12
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
23
Interceptions / Game
8
29
Fumbles / Game
21
28
Turnover EPA / Game
17
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
17
4th Down Efficiency
4
15
RZ Efficiency
21
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/13
-14
L
L
O
09/20
-21
L
L
U
09/27
-31
L
L
U
10/04
-3
L
W
O
10/11
3
W
W
U
10/18
-13
L
W
O
10/25
-28
L
L
U
11/01
-24
L
L
U
11/16
-16
L
L
U
11/22
-1
L
W
O
CIN logo

Bengals

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/13
-5
L
L
U
09/20
7
W
W
O
09/27
3
W
W
O
10/04
3
W
L
O
10/11
3
W
W
U
10/18
-11
L
L
U
10/25
35
W
W
O
11/08
10
W
W
U
11/15
6
W
W
U
11/22
-3
L
L
O