CLEBrowns
5-8
17
TBD
Paycor Stadium
28°F
8 mph
19
CINBengals
2-11
TBD
Paycor Stadium
28°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
0
0
10
17
Bengals
0
10
6
3
19
Spread
0
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
278
397
Total Plays
43
68
Yards / Play
6.5
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.23
+0.16
Passing Yards
219
--
Comp/Att
19/25(76%)
14/23(61%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
--
EPA / Pass
+0.36
+0.21
Rushing Yards
59
188
Rush Attempts
14
45
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.15
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
22
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
1
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
25%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
8
13
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-24
--
Sack EPA
-5.60
--
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
25
45
Penalty EPA
-3.13
-4.21
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market50.0%
Model50.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+25
Home nfelo
1,424
Away nfelo
1,431
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-23.9
Home QB Adjustment
-7.9
Away QB Adjustment
+16.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
D. McCoy
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+16.0
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-7.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
24
Yards / Game
30
14
Passing Yards / Game
28
10
Rushing Yards / Game
21
19
EPA
EPA / Play
23
28
EPA / Pass
27
20
EPA / Rush
22
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
25
Interceptions / Game
19
14
Fumbles / Game
13
17
Turnover EPA / Game
11
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
13
4th Down Efficiency
1
3
RZ Efficiency
27
6
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
12
Yards / Game
20
22
Passing Yards / Game
24
11
Rushing Yards / Game
27
26
EPA
EPA / Play
19
23
EPA / Pass
17
25
EPA / Rush
31
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
16
Interceptions / Game
24
8
Fumbles / Game
26
17
Turnover EPA / Game
6
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
28
4th Down Efficiency
5
31
RZ Efficiency
23
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bengals
0-10
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U