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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ bengals week 15, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
5-8
17
TBD
Paycor Stadium
28°F
8 mph
19
CINBengals
2-11
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
28°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
0
0
10
17
Bengals
0
10
6
3
19

Spread

CIN logo
0

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
278
397
Total Plays
43
68
Yards / Play
6.5
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.23
+0.16
Passing Yards
219
--
Comp/Att
19/25(76%)
14/23(61%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
--
EPA / Pass
+0.36
+0.21
Rushing Yards
59
188
Rush Attempts
14
45
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.15
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
14
22
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
1
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
25%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
8
13
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-24
--
Sack EPA
-5.60
--
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
25
45
Penalty EPA
-3.13
-4.21

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market50.0%
Model50.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+25
Home nfelo
1,422
Away nfelo
1,429
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-23.9
Home QB Adjustment
-7.9
Away QB Adjustment
+16.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

D. McCoy headshot

D. McCoy

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+16.0
Value
Ptile
10/17
-1.5
40
10/24
-5.3
16
11/07
3.5
72
11/14
-0.7
44
11/21
-4.1
23
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-7.9
Value
Ptile
10/03
5.0
82
10/10
-1.7
39
10/24
9.9
98
10/31
-1.9
37
11/08
-1.0
43
11/14
-0.5
46
11/21
0.0
49
11/25
-9.2
5
12/05
1.6
58
12/12
-7.0
10

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Browns logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
31
24
Yards / Game
30
14
Passing Yards / Game
28
10
Rushing Yards / Game
21
19

EPA

EPA / Play
23
28
EPA / Pass
27
20
EPA / Rush
22
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
25
Interceptions / Game
19
14
Fumbles / Game
13
17
Turnover EPA / Game
11
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
13
4th Down Efficiency
1
3
RZ Efficiency
27
6
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Bengals logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
23
12
Yards / Game
20
22
Passing Yards / Game
24
11
Rushing Yards / Game
27
26

EPA

EPA / Play
19
23
EPA / Pass
17
25
EPA / Rush
31
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
16
Interceptions / Game
24
8
Fumbles / Game
26
17
Turnover EPA / Game
6
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
28
4th Down Efficiency
5
31
RZ Efficiency
23
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/03
3
W
W
O
10/10
-10
L
L
U
10/17
-18
L
L
O
10/24
13
W
W
O
11/07
20
W
W
O
11/14
-6
L
L
O
11/21
-4
L
L
O
11/28
1
W
L
O
12/05
3
W
W
U
12/12
-7
L
L
U
CIN logo

Bengals

0-10
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/03
-3
L
L
O
10/10
-3
L
L
O
10/24
-7
L
L
O
10/31
-8
L
L
U
11/08
-6
L
L
O
11/14
-6
L
W
U
11/21
-18
L
L
O
11/25
-16
L
L
U
12/05
-4
L
W
O
12/12
-16
L
L
U