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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ bengals week 18, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
4-12
+7.5
TBD
Paycor Stadium
70°F
0
-7.5
CINBengals
6-10
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
70°F
0

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+158
Home nfelo
1,497
Away nfelo
1,412
Home Field
+40.0
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
-20.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+33.7
Home QB Adjustment
+7.0
Away QB Adjustment
-26.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

S. Sanders headshot

S. Sanders

Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-26.7
Value
Ptile
11/23
-3.8
25
11/30
-3.6
26
12/07
5.9
88
12/14
-10.8
2
12/21
0.0
51
12/28
-2.9
29
J. Burrow headshot

J. Burrow

Proj. Value
+1.8
Team Elo Adj
+7.0
Value
Ptile
12/22
5.1
80
12/28
10.2
97
01/04
2.7
68
09/07
-4.7
19
09/14
-6.5
10
11/27
1.2
60
12/07
5.4
85
12/14
-4.4
21
12/21
7.8
94
12/28
3.1
74

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Browns logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
31
31
Yards / Game
30
32
Passing Yards / Game
20
13
Rushing Yards / Game
27
32

EPA

EPA / Play
32
29
EPA / Pass
32
29
EPA / Rush
27
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
19
Interceptions / Game
30
11
Fumbles / Game
6
16
Turnover EPA / Game
5
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
28
4th Down Efficiency
31
24
RZ Efficiency
24
24
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Bengals logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
12
14
Yards / Game
18
2
Passing Yards / Game
2
3
Rushing Yards / Game
31
14

EPA

EPA / Play
12
3
EPA / Pass
21
4
EPA / Rush
10
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
8
Interceptions / Game
28
17
Fumbles / Game
6
19
Turnover EPA / Game
2
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
7
4th Down Efficiency
3
3
RZ Efficiency
4
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
25
W
W
O
10/26
-19
L
L
O
11/09
-7
L
L
O
11/16
-7
L
W
O
11/23
14
W
W
U
11/30
-18
L
L
U
12/07
-2
L
L
O
12/14
-28
L
L
U
12/21
-3
L
W
O
12/28
7
W
W
U
CIN logo

Bengals

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/16
2
W
W
O
10/26
-1
L
L
O
11/02
-5
L
L
O
11/16
-22
L
L
U
11/23
-6
L
W
U
11/27
18
W
W
U
12/07
-5
L
W
O
12/14
-24
L
L
U
12/21
24
W
W
O
12/28
23
W
W
U