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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ bengals week 18, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
4-12
20
TBD
Paycor Stadium
37°F
0
18
CINBengals
6-10
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
37°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
1
1
3
3
8
Bengals
6
6
0
6
18

Spread

CLE logo
+9.5

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
200
364
Total Plays
52
67
Yards / Play
3.8
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.17
Passing Yards
82
222
Comp/Att
11/22(50%)
29/40(73%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.44
-0.31
Rushing Yards
118
142
Rush Attempts
24
25
Yards / Rush
4.9
5.7
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
11
24
Passing 1st downs
4
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
36%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.89
-21.53
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-29
-14
Sack EPA
-9.85
-3.03
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
40
40
Penalty EPA
+20.18
-5.64

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market78.5%
Model77.3%
Spread Pick
CLE logo
Browns+9.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+1.9%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+163
Home nfelo
1,501
Away nfelo
1,411
Home Field
+40.0
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
-20.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+33.7
Home QB Adjustment
+7.0
Away QB Adjustment
-26.7
Market Regression
+27.5
Final Difference
212.9
Model Spread
-8.5

Quarterbacks

S. Sanders headshot

S. Sanders

Proj. Value
-3.8
Team Elo Adj
-26.7
Value
Ptile
11/23
-3.7
25
11/30
-3.5
26
12/07
5.9
89
12/14
-10.7
2
12/21
0.1
52
12/28
-2.9
30
J. Burrow headshot

J. Burrow

Proj. Value
+2.2
Team Elo Adj
+7.0
Value
Ptile
12/22
5.1
80
12/28
10.3
97
01/04
2.8
68
09/07
-4.7
20
09/14
-6.5
10
11/27
1.2
60
12/07
5.4
86
12/14
-4.4
21
12/21
7.9
94
12/28
3.2
74

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Browns logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
31
30
Yards / Game
30
31
Passing Yards / Game
21
11
Rushing Yards / Game
27
32

EPA

EPA / Play
32
29
EPA / Pass
32
28
EPA / Rush
23
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
19
Interceptions / Game
29
13
Fumbles / Game
12
17
Turnover EPA / Game
6
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
28
4th Down Efficiency
30
26
RZ Efficiency
25
24
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Bengals logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
12
13
Yards / Game
16
5
Passing Yards / Game
1
2
Rushing Yards / Game
29
16

EPA

EPA / Play
14
4
EPA / Pass
22
3
EPA / Rush
7
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
8
Interceptions / Game
27
17
Fumbles / Game
12
21
Turnover EPA / Game
1
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
7
4th Down Efficiency
3
4
RZ Efficiency
3
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
25
W
W
O
10/26
-19
L
L
O
11/09
-7
L
L
O
11/16
-7
L
W
O
11/23
14
W
W
U
11/30
-18
L
L
U
12/07
-2
L
L
O
12/14
-28
L
L
U
12/21
-3
L
W
O
12/28
7
W
W
U
CIN logo

Bengals

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/16
2
W
W
O
10/26
-1
L
L
O
11/02
-5
L
L
O
11/16
-22
L
L
U
11/23
-6
L
W
U
11/27
18
W
W
U
12/07
-5
L
W
O
12/14
-24
L
L
U
12/21
24
W
W
O
12/28
23
W
W
U