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  1. nfelo...
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  3. browns @ bills week 5, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
0-4
6
TBD
New Era Field
47°F
13 mph
3
BUFBills
1-3
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
47°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
3
0
3
6
Bills
0
0
3
0
3

Spread

CLE logo
+5.5

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
193
288
Total Plays
59
68
Yards / Play
3.3
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.22
Passing Yards
22
143
Comp/Att
2/17(12%)
16/31(52%)
Yards / Pass
1.3
4.6
EPA / Pass
-1.01
-0.35
Rushing Yards
171
145
Rush Attempts
41
35
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
9
13
Passing 1st downs
1
6
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
25%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
17
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+2.02
-2.11
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-1
-9
Sack EPA
+0.66
-2.70
Penalties
3
13
Penalty Yards
--
75
Penalty EPA
--
-10.38

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+132
Home nfelo
1,430
Away nfelo
1,364
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-18.8
Home QB Adjustment
-11.0
Away QB Adjustment
+7.8
Market Regression
-10.5
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

D. Anderson headshot

D. Anderson

Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.8
Value
Ptile
09/07
-1.0
45
09/14
-6.2
10
09/21
-13.5
0
09/28
-2.4
32
10/13
6.8
90
10/19
-4.6
18
10/26
0.6
56
11/02
0.8
58
11/30
-4.8
17
10/04
0.1
51
T. Edwards headshot

T. Edwards

Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-11.0
Value
Ptile
11/09
-6.4
8
11/17
-2.9
28
11/23
13.7
100
11/30
-4.0
22
12/21
1.7
63
12/28
-3.2
27
09/14
1.4
58
09/20
3.1
70
09/27
-6.2
14
10/04
-11.0
2

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Bills Defense
Browns logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
29
14
Yards / Game
32
19
Passing Yards / Game
30
7
Rushing Yards / Game
8
31

EPA

EPA / Play
27
13
EPA / Pass
32
2
EPA / Rush
15
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
4
Interceptions / Game
22
2
Fumbles / Game
25
30
Turnover EPA / Game
6
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
24
4th Down Efficiency
4
23
RZ Efficiency
28
20
Bills Offense vs Browns Defense
Bills logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
28
21
Yards / Game
30
31
Passing Yards / Game
27
28
Rushing Yards / Game
15
28

EPA

EPA / Play
28
24
EPA / Pass
27
29
EPA / Rush
17
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
23
Interceptions / Game
24
29
Fumbles / Game
8
28
Turnover EPA / Game
16
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
17
4th Down Efficiency
19
15
RZ Efficiency
32
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

0-10
SU
1-8-1
ATS
2-2-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
-10
L
L
P
11/30
-4
L
P
P
12/07
-19
L
L
P
12/15
-20
L
L
P
12/21
-14
L
L
P
12/28
-31
L
L
P
09/13
-14
L
L
O
09/20
-21
L
L
U
09/27
-31
L
L
U
10/04
-3
L
W
O
BUF logo

Bills

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-1-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
23
W
W
P
11/30
-7
L
L
P
12/07
-13
L
L
P
12/14
-4
L
W
P
12/21
7
W
W
P
12/28
-13
L
L
P
09/14
-1
L
W
O
09/20
13
W
W
O
09/27
-20
L
L
U
10/04
-28
L
L
O