CLEBrowns
0-4
6
TBD
New Era Field
47°F
13 mph
3
BUFBills
1-3
TBD
New Era Field
47°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
3
0
3
6
Bills
0
0
3
0
3
Spread
+5.5
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
193
288
Total Plays
59
68
Yards / Play
3.3
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.22
Passing Yards
22
143
Comp/Att
2/17(12%)
16/31(52%)
Yards / Pass
1.3
4.6
EPA / Pass
-1.01
-0.35
Rushing Yards
171
145
Rush Attempts
41
35
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
9
13
Passing 1st downs
1
6
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
25%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
17
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+2.02
-2.11
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-1
-9
Sack EPA
+0.66
-2.70
Penalties
3
13
Penalty Yards
--
75
Penalty EPA
--
-10.38
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+130
Home nfelo
1,430
Away nfelo
1,365
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-18.8
Home QB Adjustment
-11.0
Away QB Adjustment
+7.8
Market Regression
-10.5
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
D. Anderson
Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.8
T. Edwards
Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-11.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
14
Yards / Game
32
19
Passing Yards / Game
30
7
Rushing Yards / Game
8
31
EPA
EPA / Play
27
13
EPA / Pass
32
2
EPA / Rush
15
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
4
Interceptions / Game
22
2
Fumbles / Game
25
30
Turnover EPA / Game
6
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
24
4th Down Efficiency
4
23
RZ Efficiency
28
20
Bills Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
21
Yards / Game
30
31
Passing Yards / Game
27
28
Rushing Yards / Game
15
28
EPA
EPA / Play
28
24
EPA / Pass
27
29
EPA / Rush
17
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
23
Interceptions / Game
24
29
Fumbles / Game
8
28
Turnover EPA / Game
16
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
17
4th Down Efficiency
19
15
RZ Efficiency
32
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
0-10
SU
1-8-1
ATS
2-2-6
O/U
Bills
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-1-6
O/U