CLE logo
CLE
7-4
10
26
BUF
6-5
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
57°F
17 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
0
0
7
10
Bills
0
0
8
12
20

Spread

BUF logo
-3

Total

UNDER
42

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
315
287
Total Plays
66
62
Yards / Play
4.8
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.43
-0.17
Passing Yards
241
181
Comp/Att
23/38(61%)
17/31(55%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.19
-0.33
Rushing Yards
74
106
Rush Attempts
26
30
Yards / Rush
2.8
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.42
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
19
15
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
25%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
3
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
33%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-15.56
-8.90
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-14
-9
Sack EPA
-4.66
-1.49
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
76
45
Penalty EPA
-9.55
-0.93

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model67.5%
Spread Pick
BUF logo
Bills-3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+10.5%
Cover Probability
54.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+178
Home nfelo
1,547
Away nfelo
1,488
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+35.4
Home QB Adjustment
+31.1
Away QB Adjustment
-4.3
Market Regression
-3.5
Final Difference
127.4
Model Spread
-5.5

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Bills Defense
Browns logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
27
4
Yards / Game
23
4
Passing Yards / Game
22
14
Rushing Yards / Game
16
10

EPA

EPA / Play
27
1
EPA / Pass
22
1
EPA / Rush
23
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
15
Interceptions / Game
19
5
Fumbles / Game
4
10
Turnover EPA / Game
25
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
1
4th Down Efficiency
27
14
RZ Efficiency
23
10
Bills Offense vs Browns Defense
Bills logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
18
9
Yards / Game
24
22
Passing Yards / Game
11
17
Rushing Yards / Game
25
32

EPA

EPA / Play
25
8
EPA / Pass
21
3
EPA / Rush
28
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
20
Interceptions / Game
11
2
Fumbles / Game
15
16
Turnover EPA / Game
24
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
11
4th Down Efficiency
20
29
RZ Efficiency
30
6