CLEBrowns
7-4
10
TBD
New Era Field
57°F
17 mph
26
BUFBills
6-5
TBD
New Era Field
57°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
0
0
7
10
Bills
0
0
8
12
20
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
315
287
Total Plays
66
62
Yards / Play
4.8
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.43
-0.17
Passing Yards
241
181
Comp/Att
23/38(61%)
17/31(55%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.19
-0.33
Rushing Yards
74
106
Rush Attempts
26
30
Yards / Rush
2.8
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.42
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
15
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
25%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
3
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
33%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-15.56
-8.90
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-14
-9
Sack EPA
-4.66
-1.49
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
76
45
Penalty EPA
-9.55
-0.93
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model67.4%
Spread Pick
Bills-3.0
Expected Value
+9.9%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+175
Home nfelo
1,545
Away nfelo
1,490
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+35.4
Home QB Adjustment
+31.1
Away QB Adjustment
-4.3
Market Regression
-5.1
Final Difference
125.9
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-4.3
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+31.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
4
Yards / Game
23
4
Passing Yards / Game
22
14
Rushing Yards / Game
16
10
EPA
EPA / Play
27
1
EPA / Pass
22
1
EPA / Rush
23
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
15
Interceptions / Game
19
5
Fumbles / Game
4
10
Turnover EPA / Game
25
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
1
4th Down Efficiency
27
14
RZ Efficiency
23
10
Bills Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
9
Yards / Game
24
22
Passing Yards / Game
11
17
Rushing Yards / Game
25
32
EPA
EPA / Play
25
8
EPA / Pass
21
3
EPA / Rush
28
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
20
Interceptions / Game
11
2
Fumbles / Game
15
16
Turnover EPA / Game
24
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
11
4th Down Efficiency
20
29
RZ Efficiency
30
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
7-3
SU
5-3-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bills
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U