CLEBrowns
5-7
6
TBD
New Era Field
36°F
6 mph
13
BUFBills
2-10
TBD
New Era Field
36°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
3
0
0
6
Bills
0
10
0
3
13
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
187
323
Total Plays
46
67
Yards / Play
4.1
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.30
-0.11
Passing Yards
82
131
Comp/Att
12/20(60%)
14/23(61%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.60
-0.22
Rushing Yards
105
192
Rush Attempts
25
42
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
9
19
Passing 1st downs
2
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
20%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-12.69
-5.40
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-4
-11
Sack EPA
-4.37
-6.13
Penalties
2
6
Penalty Yards
--
44
Penalty EPA
--
-5.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
Bills-1.0
Expected Value
+5.0%
Cover Probability
54.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+87
Home nfelo
1,407
Away nfelo
1,437
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+32.6
Home QB Adjustment
+16.1
Away QB Adjustment
-16.4
Market Regression
-3.1
Final Difference
42.8
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Delhomme
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-16.4
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+16.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
28
Yards / Game
30
24
Passing Yards / Game
28
8
Rushing Yards / Game
21
32
EPA
EPA / Play
23
27
EPA / Pass
27
28
EPA / Rush
22
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
18
Interceptions / Game
19
28
Fumbles / Game
13
14
Turnover EPA / Game
11
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
31
4th Down Efficiency
1
29
RZ Efficiency
27
27
Bills Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
12
Yards / Game
25
22
Passing Yards / Game
9
11
Rushing Yards / Game
18
26
EPA
EPA / Play
29
23
EPA / Pass
28
25
EPA / Rush
23
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
16
Interceptions / Game
27
8
Fumbles / Game
31
17
Turnover EPA / Game
3
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
28
4th Down Efficiency
16
31
RZ Efficiency
21
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U
Bills
2-8
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U