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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ bills week 15, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
0-13
13
TBD
New Era Field
26°F
15 mph
33
BUFBills
6-7
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
26°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
0
10
0
13
Bills
10
7
7
9
33

Spread

BUF logo
-10.5

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
269
451
Total Plays
54
66
Yards / Play
5.0
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.21
Passing Yards
162
171
Comp/Att
17/28(61%)
17/25(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.00
+0.33
Rushing Yards
107
280
Rush Attempts
21
40
Yards / Rush
5.1
7.0
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
16
29
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
16
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
27%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
9
Red Zone %
33%
43%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
7
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-34
-3
Sack EPA
-7.11
-0.78
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
51
42
Penalty EPA
-4.80
-5.68

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-10.5
Model
-11.5

Win Probability

Market80.6%
Model82.6%
Spread Pick
BUF logo
Bills-10.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+1.6%
Cover Probability
53.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+308
Home nfelo
1,518
Away nfelo
1,287
Home Field
+78.4
Base HFA
+58.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.1
Home QB Adjustment
-7.8
Away QB Adjustment
-6.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
270.7
Model Spread
-11.5

Quarterbacks

R. Griffin headshot

R. Griffin

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.7
Value
Ptile
12/08
-7.5
10
09/07
1.0
57
09/14
-4.6
22
11/02
-3.5
28
11/16
-6.0
15
11/23
-7.4
9
12/20
-3.1
29
12/28
1.0
56
09/11
-6.2
10
12/11
-7.4
7
T. Taylor headshot

T. Taylor

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-7.8
Value
Ptile
10/02
3.0
72
10/09
-1.9
35
10/16
3.0
73
10/23
-0.9
41
10/30
0.7
54
11/07
3.0
72
11/20
-3.0
26
11/27
-1.4
37
12/04
-4.9
15
12/11
-4.2
18

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Bills Defense
Browns logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
31
16
Yards / Game
30
19
Passing Yards / Game
16
8
Rushing Yards / Game
18
29

EPA

EPA / Play
27
16
EPA / Pass
27
19
EPA / Rush
23
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
4
Interceptions / Game
16
20
Fumbles / Game
27
26
Turnover EPA / Game
16
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
19
4th Down Efficiency
5
6
RZ Efficiency
15
11
Bills Offense vs Browns Defense
Bills logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
10
30
Yards / Game
16
31
Passing Yards / Game
27
9
Rushing Yards / Game
1
30

EPA

EPA / Play
11
32
EPA / Pass
19
32
EPA / Rush
1
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
1
Interceptions / Game
5
22
Fumbles / Game
2
32
Turnover EPA / Game
30
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
30
4th Down Efficiency
10
29
RZ Efficiency
10
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

0-10
SU
1-9
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
-11
L
L
O
10/09
-20
L
L
U
10/16
-2
L
W
O
10/23
-14
L
L
O
10/30
-3
L
L
O
11/06
-25
L
L
U
11/10
-21
L
L
U
11/20
-15
L
L
U
11/27
-14
L
L
U
12/11
-13
L
L
U
BUF logo

Bills

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
16
W
W
U
10/09
11
W
W
O
10/16
29
W
W
O
10/23
-3
L
L
O
10/30
-16
L
L
O
11/07
-6
L
L
O
11/20
4
W
W
U
11/27
7
W
L
O
12/04
-14
L
L
O
12/11
-7
L
L
O