CLEBrowns
0-13
13
TBD
New Era Field
26°F
15 mph
33
BUFBills
6-7
TBD
New Era Field
26°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
0
10
0
13
Bills
10
7
7
9
33
Spread
-10.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
269
451
Total Plays
54
66
Yards / Play
5.0
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.21
Passing Yards
162
171
Comp/Att
17/28(61%)
17/25(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.00
+0.33
Rushing Yards
107
280
Rush Attempts
21
40
Yards / Rush
5.1
7.0
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
29
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
16
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
27%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
9
Red Zone %
33%
43%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-34
-3
Sack EPA
-7.11
-0.78
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
51
42
Penalty EPA
-4.80
-5.68
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-10.5
Model
-12.0
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model83.2%
Spread Pick
Bills-10.5
Expected Value
+2.3%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+311
Home nfelo
1,520
Away nfelo
1,285
Home Field
+77.4
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.1
Home QB Adjustment
-7.8
Away QB Adjustment
-6.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
278.0
Model Spread
-12.0
Quarterbacks
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.7
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-7.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
16
Yards / Game
30
19
Passing Yards / Game
16
8
Rushing Yards / Game
18
29
EPA
EPA / Play
27
16
EPA / Pass
27
19
EPA / Rush
23
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
4
Interceptions / Game
16
20
Fumbles / Game
27
26
Turnover EPA / Game
16
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
19
4th Down Efficiency
5
6
RZ Efficiency
15
11
Bills Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
30
Yards / Game
16
31
Passing Yards / Game
27
9
Rushing Yards / Game
1
30
EPA
EPA / Play
11
32
EPA / Pass
19
32
EPA / Rush
1
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
1
Interceptions / Game
5
22
Fumbles / Game
2
32
Turnover EPA / Game
30
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
30
4th Down Efficiency
10
29
RZ Efficiency
10
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
0-10
SU
1-9
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bills
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U