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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ broncos week 2, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
0-1
6
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
82°F
9 mph
27
DENBroncos
1-0
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
82°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
6
0
0
0
6
Broncos
7
3
3
14
27

Spread

DEN logo
-3

Total

UNDER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
200
449
Total Plays
56
74
Yards / Play
3.6
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.29
+0.06
Passing Yards
146
--
Comp/Att
18/31(58%)
19/37(51%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
--
EPA / Pass
-0.34
+0.22
Rushing Yards
54
186
Rush Attempts
21
37
Yards / Rush
2.6
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.39
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
11
25
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
1
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
21%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-8.38
-5.14
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-15
--
Sack EPA
-5.20
--
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
43
50
Penalty EPA
-5.77
-3.02

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model64.0%
Spread Pick
DEN logo
Broncos-3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+138
Home nfelo
1,469
Away nfelo
1,388
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-28.6
Home QB Adjustment
-23.0
Away QB Adjustment
+5.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
99.8
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

B. Quinn headshot

B. Quinn

Proj. Value
-4.9
Team Elo Adj
+5.6
Value
Ptile
11/06
5.1
85
11/17
-4.1
21
11/23
-8.5
5
09/13
-3.0
31
K. Orton headshot

K. Orton

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-23.0
Value
Ptile
10/19
4.5
81
11/02
-2.2
34
11/16
-2.3
34
11/23
-1.5
40
11/30
-9.2
3
12/07
0.5
55
12/11
-3.5
25
12/22
-7.7
7
12/28
3.8
77
09/13
-0.0
49

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Broncos Defense
Browns logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
29
11
Yards / Game
32
7
Passing Yards / Game
30
4
Rushing Yards / Game
8
26

EPA

EPA / Play
27
12
EPA / Pass
32
6
EPA / Rush
15
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
14
Interceptions / Game
22
13
Fumbles / Game
25
7
Turnover EPA / Game
6
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
12
4th Down Efficiency
4
15
RZ Efficiency
28
14
Broncos Offense vs Browns Defense
Broncos logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
20
21
Yards / Game
15
31
Passing Yards / Game
9
28
Rushing Yards / Game
18
28

EPA

EPA / Play
18
24
EPA / Pass
15
29
EPA / Rush
18
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
23
Interceptions / Game
7
29
Fumbles / Game
13
28
Turnover EPA / Game
20
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
17
4th Down Efficiency
25
15
RZ Efficiency
22
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

1-9
SU
1-8-1
ATS
1-0-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/02
-10
L
L
P
11/06
-4
L
L
P
11/17
2
W
W
P
11/23
-10
L
L
P
11/30
-4
L
P
P
12/07
-19
L
L
P
12/15
-20
L
L
P
12/21
-14
L
L
P
12/28
-31
L
L
P
09/13
-14
L
L
O
DEN logo

Broncos

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
0-1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/02
-9
L
L
P
11/06
4
W
W
P
11/16
4
W
W
P
11/23
-21
L
L
P
11/30
17
W
W
P
12/07
7
W
L
P
12/14
-20
L
L
P
12/21
-7
L
L
P
12/28
-31
L
L
P
09/13
5
W
W
U