CLEBrowns
0-1
6
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
82°F
9 mph
27
DENBroncos
1-0
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
82°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
6
0
0
0
6
Broncos
7
3
3
14
27
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
200
449
Total Plays
56
74
Yards / Play
3.6
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.29
+0.06
Passing Yards
146
--
Comp/Att
18/31(58%)
19/37(51%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
--
EPA / Pass
-0.34
+0.22
Rushing Yards
54
186
Rush Attempts
21
37
Yards / Rush
2.6
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.39
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
25
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
1
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
21%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-8.38
-5.14
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-15
--
Sack EPA
-5.20
--
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
43
50
Penalty EPA
-5.77
-3.02
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model64.0%
Spread Pick
Broncos-3.0
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+138
Home nfelo
1,469
Away nfelo
1,388
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-28.6
Home QB Adjustment
-23.0
Away QB Adjustment
+5.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
99.8
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
B. Quinn
Proj. Value
-4.9
Team Elo Adj
+5.6
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-23.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
11
Yards / Game
32
7
Passing Yards / Game
30
4
Rushing Yards / Game
8
26
EPA
EPA / Play
27
12
EPA / Pass
32
6
EPA / Rush
15
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
14
Interceptions / Game
22
13
Fumbles / Game
25
7
Turnover EPA / Game
6
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
12
4th Down Efficiency
4
15
RZ Efficiency
28
14
Broncos Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
21
Yards / Game
15
31
Passing Yards / Game
9
28
Rushing Yards / Game
18
28
EPA
EPA / Play
18
24
EPA / Pass
15
29
EPA / Rush
18
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
23
Interceptions / Game
7
29
Fumbles / Game
13
28
Turnover EPA / Game
20
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
17
4th Down Efficiency
25
15
RZ Efficiency
22
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
1-9
SU
1-8-1
ATS
1-0-9
O/U
Broncos
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
0-1-9
O/U