CLEBrowns
7-3
12
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
40°F
5 mph
29
DENBroncos
5-5
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
40°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
6
6
0
12
Broncos
7
7
3
10
27
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
269
294
Total Plays
71
62
Yards / Play
3.8
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.24
+0.03
Passing Yards
162
125
Comp/Att
20/43(47%)
13/22(59%)
Yards / Pass
3.8
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.29
+0.20
Rushing Yards
107
169
Rush Attempts
24
39
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.31
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
10
5
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
15%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
33%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
3
1
Turnover EPA
-12.58
-2.40
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-28
-9
Sack EPA
-7.51
-1.57
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
66
71
Penalty EPA
-8.26
-7.18
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
+3.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+30
Home nfelo
1,459
Away nfelo
1,572
Home Field
+60.4
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+15.9
Net QB Adjustment
+81.7
Home QB Adjustment
+7.5
Away QB Adjustment
-74.2
Market Regression
+29.5
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
D. Thompson-Robinson
Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-74.2
Value
Ptile
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
27
Yards / Game
16
29
Passing Yards / Game
5
14
Rushing Yards / Game
13
30
EPA
EPA / Play
28
24
EPA / Pass
28
26
EPA / Rush
23
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
6
Interceptions / Game
32
19
Fumbles / Game
26
1
Turnover EPA / Game
1
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
2
4th Down Efficiency
16
10
RZ Efficiency
15
21
Broncos Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
21
Yards / Game
26
1
Passing Yards / Game
13
2
Rushing Yards / Game
19
10
EPA
EPA / Play
20
1
EPA / Pass
20
1
EPA / Rush
19
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
11
Interceptions / Game
4
5
Fumbles / Game
27
18
Turnover EPA / Game
15
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
1
4th Down Efficiency
4
1
RZ Efficiency
19
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Broncos
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U