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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ broncos week 12, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
7-3
12
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
40°F
5 mph
29
DENBroncos
5-5
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
40°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
6
6
0
12
Broncos
7
7
3
10
27

Spread

DEN logo
-1

Total

OVER
37.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
269
294
Total Plays
71
62
Yards / Play
3.8
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.24
+0.03
Passing Yards
162
125
Comp/Att
20/43(47%)
13/22(59%)
Yards / Pass
3.8
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.29
+0.20
Rushing Yards
107
169
Rush Attempts
24
39
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.31
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
10
5
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
15%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
33%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
3
1
Turnover EPA
-12.58
-2.40
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-28
-9
Sack EPA
-7.51
-1.57
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
66
71
Penalty EPA
-8.26
-7.18

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
+3.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+29
Home nfelo
1,458
Away nfelo
1,572
Home Field
+60.3
Base HFA
+44.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+15.9
Net QB Adjustment
+82.7
Home QB Adjustment
+7.6
Away QB Adjustment
-75.1
Market Regression
+29.7
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

D. Thompson-Robinson headshot

D. Thompson-Robinson

Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
-75.1
Value
Ptile
10/01
-12.5
1
11/19
-3.3
27
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+7.6
Value
Ptile
09/10
1.5
59
09/17
0.2
51
09/24
0.2
51
10/01
4.4
78
10/08
1.7
61
10/12
-8.8
6
10/22
2.7
68
10/29
-2.8
30
11/13
2.8
68
11/19
2.2
65

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Broncos Defense
Browns logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
12
27
Yards / Game
16
29
Passing Yards / Game
5
14
Rushing Yards / Game
13
30

EPA

EPA / Play
28
24
EPA / Pass
28
26
EPA / Rush
23
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
6
Interceptions / Game
32
19
Fumbles / Game
26
1
Turnover EPA / Game
1
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
2
4th Down Efficiency
16
10
RZ Efficiency
15
21
Broncos Offense vs Browns Defense
Broncos logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
20
21
Yards / Game
26
1
Passing Yards / Game
13
2
Rushing Yards / Game
19
10

EPA

EPA / Play
20
1
EPA / Pass
20
1
EPA / Rush
19
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
11
Interceptions / Game
4
5
Fumbles / Game
27
18
Turnover EPA / Game
15
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
1
4th Down Efficiency
4
1
RZ Efficiency
19
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/10
21
W
W
U
09/18
-4
L
L
O
09/24
24
W
W
U
10/01
-25
L
L
U
10/15
2
W
W
P
10/22
1
W
L
O
10/29
-4
L
P
O
11/05
27
W
W
U
11/12
2
W
W
O
11/19
3
W
W
U
DEN logo

Broncos

5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/10
-1
L
L
U
09/17
-2
L
L
O
09/24
-50
L
L
O
10/01
3
W
P
O
10/08
-10
L
L
O
10/12
-11
L
L
U
10/22
2
W
W
U
10/29
15
W
W
U
11/13
2
W
W
U
11/19
1
W
L
U