CLEBrowns
-
14
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
87°F
6 mph
17
TBBuccaneers
-
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
87°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
7
0
0
14
Buccaneers
3
7
0
7
17
Spread
3
P
Total
UNDER
37
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
340
288
Total Plays
61
61
Yards / Play
5.6
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.20
Passing Yards
--
169
Comp/Att
21/38(55%)
17/28(61%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.20
-0.18
Rushing Yards
104
119
Rush Attempts
23
30
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
13
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
38%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-14.83
-8.32
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-13
Sack EPA
--
-6.21
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
47
55
Penalty EPA
-3.87
-5.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+85
Home nfelo
1,398
Away nfelo
1,380
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+3.7
Home QB Adjustment
-7.0
Away QB Adjustment
-10.6
Market Regression
+30.3
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Delhomme
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-10.6
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-7.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
7
Yards / Game
30
15
Passing Yards / Game
28
1
Rushing Yards / Game
21
28
EPA
EPA / Play
23
22
EPA / Pass
27
14
EPA / Rush
22
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
23
Interceptions / Game
19
8
Fumbles / Game
13
14
Turnover EPA / Game
11
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
30
4th Down Efficiency
1
21
RZ Efficiency
27
19
Buccaneers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
12
Yards / Game
18
22
Passing Yards / Game
17
11
Rushing Yards / Game
8
26
EPA
EPA / Play
12
23
EPA / Pass
8
25
EPA / Rush
9
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
16
Interceptions / Game
2
8
Fumbles / Game
19
17
Turnover EPA / Game
24
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
28
4th Down Efficiency
1
31
RZ Efficiency
17
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Buccaneers
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U