CLEBrowns
1-2
27
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
68°F
11 mph
30
LACChargers
1-2
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
68°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
10
3
11
27
Chargers
7
6
7
10
30
Spread
+5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
434
438
Total Plays
67
61
Yards / Play
6.5
7.2
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.22
Passing Yards
334
347
Comp/Att
32/42(76%)
23/38(61%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
9.1
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.34
Rushing Yards
100
91
Rush Attempts
21
21
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
23
Passing 1st downs
16
15
Rushing 1st downs
2
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
5
3rd Down %
31%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
25%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.58
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-24
-11
Sack EPA
-7.80
-3.41
Penalties
12
6
Penalty Yards
91
31
Penalty EPA
-11.18
-4.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model68.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+171
Home nfelo
1,501
Away nfelo
1,410
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+6.4
Home QB Adjustment
-1.6
Away QB Adjustment
-8.1
Market Regression
-37.5
Final Difference
133.5
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-8.1
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-1.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
21
Yards / Game
26
21
Passing Yards / Game
12
17
Rushing Yards / Game
22
27
EPA
EPA / Play
29
30
EPA / Pass
28
19
EPA / Rush
18
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
13
Interceptions / Game
11
20
Fumbles / Game
31
15
Turnover EPA / Game
6
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
13
4th Down Efficiency
26
32
RZ Efficiency
32
7
Chargers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
29
Yards / Game
7
28
Passing Yards / Game
1
2
Rushing Yards / Game
30
30
EPA
EPA / Play
18
29
EPA / Pass
11
30
EPA / Rush
31
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
2
Interceptions / Game
16
20
Fumbles / Game
21
9
Turnover EPA / Game
15
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
21
4th Down Efficiency
29
27
RZ Efficiency
7
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chargers
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U