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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ chiefs week 1, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
-
29
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
88°F
8 mph
33
KCChiefs
-
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
88°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
8
14
0
7
29
Chiefs
3
7
10
13
33

Spread

CLE logo
+5

Total

OVER
54.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
459
397
Total Plays
57
62
Yards / Play
8.1
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.31
Passing Yards
304
324
Comp/Att
21/28(75%)
27/37(73%)
Yards / Pass
10.9
8.8
EPA / Pass
+0.38
+0.52
Rushing Yards
155
73
Rush Attempts
27
23
Yards / Rush
5.7
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.18
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
24
21
Passing 1st downs
14
17
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
29%
69%
3rd Down Conversions
2
9
3rd Down Attempts
7
13
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.39
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-17
-13
Sack EPA
-2.42
-2.37
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
30
36
Penalty EPA
-2.99
-4.09

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+162
Home nfelo
1,626
Away nfelo
1,516
Home Field
+53.0
Base HFA
+44.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.1
Net QB Adjustment
-1.9
Home QB Adjustment
+2.1
Away QB Adjustment
+4.0
Market Regression
-17.6
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0

Quarterbacks

B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.0
Value
Ptile
11/15
-6.6
9
11/22
-5.7
13
11/29
-0.7
40
12/06
9.2
95
12/14
6.8
87
12/20
7.2
89
12/27
-7.3
7
01/03
1.8
57
01/10
7.3
90
01/17
-2.3
28
P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
Value
Ptile
11/08
8.6
94
11/22
6.6
87
11/29
13.3
99
12/06
4.5
76
12/13
-0.4
43
12/20
2.6
64
12/27
-0.6
41
01/17
3.6
70
01/24
8.5
93
02/07
-6.8
9

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Browns logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
20
17
Yards / Game
18
26
Passing Yards / Game
28
20
Rushing Yards / Game
4
19

EPA

EPA / Play
20
24
EPA / Pass
22
22
EPA / Rush
4
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
24
Interceptions / Game
14
15
Fumbles / Game
20
5
Turnover EPA / Game
21
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
22
4th Down Efficiency
30
31
RZ Efficiency
12
16
Chiefs Offense vs Browns Defense
Chiefs logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
4
14
Yards / Game
1
3
Passing Yards / Game
4
8
Rushing Yards / Game
12
11

EPA

EPA / Play
1
21
EPA / Pass
1
11
EPA / Rush
5
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
6
Interceptions / Game
13
17
Fumbles / Game
31
30
Turnover EPA / Game
13
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
14
4th Down Efficiency
2
27
RZ Efficiency
11
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
3
W
L
U
11/22
5
W
W
U
11/29
2
W
L
O
12/06
6
W
W
O
12/14
-5
L
L
O
12/20
14
W
W
U
12/27
-7
L
L
U
01/03
2
W
L
O
01/10
11
W
W
O
01/17
-5
L
W
U
KC logo

Chiefs

8-2
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
4
W
L
O
11/29
3
W
L
U
12/06
6
W
L
U
12/13
6
W
L
O
12/20
3
W
W
O
12/27
3
W
L
U
01/03
-17
L
L
O
01/17
5
W
L
U
01/24
14
W
W
O
02/07
-22
L
L
U