CLEBrowns
-
29
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
88°F
8 mph
33
KCChiefs
-
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
88°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
8
14
0
7
29
Chiefs
3
7
10
13
33
Spread
+5
Total
OVER
54.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
459
397
Total Plays
57
62
Yards / Play
8.1
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.31
Passing Yards
304
324
Comp/Att
21/28(75%)
27/37(73%)
Yards / Pass
10.9
8.8
EPA / Pass
+0.38
+0.52
Rushing Yards
155
73
Rush Attempts
27
23
Yards / Rush
5.7
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.18
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
21
Passing 1st downs
14
17
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
29%
69%
3rd Down Conversions
2
9
3rd Down Attempts
7
13
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.39
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-17
-13
Sack EPA
-2.42
-2.37
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
30
36
Penalty EPA
-2.99
-4.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+160
Home nfelo
1,627
Away nfelo
1,517
Home Field
+52.9
Base HFA
+44.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.0
Net QB Adjustment
-1.9
Home QB Adjustment
+2.1
Away QB Adjustment
+4.0
Market Regression
-17.6
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.0
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
17
Yards / Game
18
26
Passing Yards / Game
28
20
Rushing Yards / Game
4
19
EPA
EPA / Play
20
24
EPA / Pass
22
22
EPA / Rush
4
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
24
Interceptions / Game
14
15
Fumbles / Game
20
5
Turnover EPA / Game
21
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
22
4th Down Efficiency
30
31
RZ Efficiency
12
16
Chiefs Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
14
Yards / Game
1
3
Passing Yards / Game
4
8
Rushing Yards / Game
12
11
EPA
EPA / Play
1
21
EPA / Pass
1
11
EPA / Rush
5
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
6
Interceptions / Game
13
17
Fumbles / Game
31
30
Turnover EPA / Game
13
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
14
4th Down Efficiency
2
27
RZ Efficiency
11
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chiefs
8-2
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U