CLEBrowns
3-4
17
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
52°F
4 mph
23
KCChiefs
7-0
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
52°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
10
7
0
17
Chiefs
6
14
0
3
23
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
340
331
Total Plays
52
71
Yards / Play
6.5
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.15
Passing Yards
283
195
Comp/Att
22/36(61%)
24/36(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.06
Rushing Yards
57
136
Rush Attempts
15
29
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
20
Passing 1st downs
9
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
25%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
3
10
3rd Down Attempts
12
19
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
+4.31
Sacks
1
6
Sack Yards
-10
-30
Sack EPA
-1.17
-7.59
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
70
31
Penalty EPA
-7.73
-2.90
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model67.5%
Spread Pick
Browns+7.0
Expected Value
+8.1%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+88
Home nfelo
1,490
Away nfelo
1,439
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-14.3
Home QB Adjustment
+10.6
Away QB Adjustment
+25.0
Market Regression
-60.4
Final Difference
127.4
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
J. Campbell
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+25.0
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
7
Yards / Game
18
25
Passing Yards / Game
8
6
Rushing Yards / Game
28
22
EPA
EPA / Play
25
5
EPA / Pass
25
9
EPA / Rush
14
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
19
Interceptions / Game
24
3
Fumbles / Game
9
3
Turnover EPA / Game
14
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
8
4th Down Efficiency
17
20
RZ Efficiency
22
17
Chiefs Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
23
Yards / Game
12
9
Passing Yards / Game
23
9
Rushing Yards / Game
10
18
EPA
EPA / Play
9
17
EPA / Pass
17
12
EPA / Rush
7
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
3
Interceptions / Game
1
19
Fumbles / Game
28
24
Turnover EPA / Game
32
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
31
4th Down Efficiency
27
16
RZ Efficiency
6
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chiefs
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
1-8-1
O/U