CLEBrowns
2-11
41
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
39°F
15 mph
34
KCChiefs
3-10
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
39°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
10
10
7
14
41
Chiefs
3
15
0
10
28
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
417
491
Total Plays
67
71
Yards / Play
6.2
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.30
+0.15
Passing Yards
--
323
Comp/Att
10/18(56%)
22/40(55%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.1
EPA / Pass
-0.29
+0.14
Rushing Yards
351
168
Rush Attempts
49
30
Yards / Rush
7.2
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.26
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
22
Passing 1st downs
5
14
Rushing 1st downs
15
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
38%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-11.75
-5.30
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-8
Sack EPA
--
-1.07
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
20
34
Penalty EPA
-1.25
-3.55
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model50.9%
Spread Pick
Browns+2.5
Expected Value
+2.6%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-23
Home nfelo
1,275
Away nfelo
1,320
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-29.8
Home QB Adjustment
-10.2
Away QB Adjustment
+19.6
Market Regression
+5.9
Final Difference
6.4
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
B. Quinn
Proj. Value
-4.9
Team Elo Adj
+19.6
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-10.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
29
Yards / Game
32
30
Passing Yards / Game
30
8
Rushing Yards / Game
8
30
EPA
EPA / Play
27
25
EPA / Pass
32
18
EPA / Rush
15
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
5
Interceptions / Game
22
16
Fumbles / Game
25
7
Turnover EPA / Game
6
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
14
4th Down Efficiency
4
24
RZ Efficiency
28
22
Chiefs Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
21
Yards / Game
25
31
Passing Yards / Game
20
28
Rushing Yards / Game
12
28
EPA
EPA / Play
26
24
EPA / Pass
26
29
EPA / Rush
26
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
23
Interceptions / Game
18
29
Fumbles / Game
13
28
Turnover EPA / Game
18
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
17
4th Down Efficiency
17
15
RZ Efficiency
23
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
2-8
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chiefs
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-3-2
O/U