nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ chiefs week 16, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

CLE logo
CLEBrowns
3-11
13
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
36°F
16 mph
17
KCChiefs
9-5
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
36°F
16 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
3
7
3
13
Chiefs
10
7
0
0
17

Spread

CLE logo
+11.5

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
368
258
Total Plays
68
50
Yards / Play
5.4
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.11
Passing Yards
--
122
Comp/Att
13/32(41%)
15/22(68%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.45
-0.08
Rushing Yards
232
136
Rush Attempts
36
27
Yards / Rush
6.4
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.30
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
21
16
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
13
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
40%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.72
-7.09
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-3
Sack EPA
--
-1.96
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
83
33
Penalty EPA
-5.59
-4.33

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-12.5
Current
-11.5
Model
-11.5

Win Probability

Market82.6%
Model82.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+304
Home nfelo
1,595
Away nfelo
1,363
Home Field
+49.1
Base HFA
+59.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.7
Net QB Adjustment
+23.0
Home QB Adjustment
+9.3
Away QB Adjustment
-13.7
Market Regression
-18.8
Final Difference
270.6
Model Spread
-11.5

Quarterbacks

J. Manziel headshot

J. Manziel

Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
-13.7
Value
Ptile
12/14
-11.0
2
12/21
-6.5
13
09/20
-1.2
42
11/05
-3.8
23
11/15
0.3
52
12/13
-0.8
46
12/20
-3.9
22
A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.3
Value
Ptile
10/11
-3.4
26
10/18
1.2
59
10/25
-0.0
51
11/01
5.5
84
11/15
0.6
54
11/22
0.5
54
11/29
5.5
85
12/06
1.3
60
12/13
-1.4
41
12/20
-0.5
48

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Browns logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
30
1
Yards / Game
26
6
Passing Yards / Game
12
7
Rushing Yards / Game
22
6

EPA

EPA / Play
29
5
EPA / Pass
28
3
EPA / Rush
18
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
8
Interceptions / Game
11
2
Fumbles / Game
31
23
Turnover EPA / Game
6
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
5
4th Down Efficiency
26
15
RZ Efficiency
32
22
Chiefs Offense vs Browns Defense
Chiefs logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
9
29
Yards / Game
25
28
Passing Yards / Game
19
2
Rushing Yards / Game
6
30

EPA

EPA / Play
5
29
EPA / Pass
15
30
EPA / Rush
1
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
2
Interceptions / Game
1
20
Fumbles / Game
7
9
Turnover EPA / Game
30
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
21
4th Down Efficiency
2
27
RZ Efficiency
12
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
3
W
W
O
10/18
-3
L
W
O
10/25
-18
L
L
U
11/01
-14
L
L
O
11/05
-21
L
L
U
11/15
-21
L
L
U
11/30
-6
L
L
O
12/06
-34
L
L
U
12/13
14
W
W
U
12/20
-17
L
L
U
KC logo

Chiefs

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
-1
L
L
U
10/18
-6
L
L
U
10/25
10
W
W
U
11/01
35
W
W
O
11/15
16
W
W
P
11/22
30
W
W
U
11/29
8
W
W
O
12/06
14
W
W
O
12/13
7
W
L
U
12/20
20
W
W
O