CLEBrowns
3-11
13
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
36°F
16 mph
17
KCChiefs
9-5
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
36°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
3
7
3
13
Chiefs
10
7
0
0
17
Spread
+11.5
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
368
258
Total Plays
68
50
Yards / Play
5.4
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.11
Passing Yards
--
122
Comp/Att
13/32(41%)
15/22(68%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.45
-0.08
Rushing Yards
232
136
Rush Attempts
36
27
Yards / Rush
6.4
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.30
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
16
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
13
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
40%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.72
-7.09
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-3
Sack EPA
--
-1.96
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
83
33
Penalty EPA
-5.59
-4.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-12.5
Current
-11.5
Model
-11.5
Win Probability
Market82.6%
Model82.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+303
Home nfelo
1,595
Away nfelo
1,363
Home Field
+48.5
Base HFA
+59.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.6
Net QB Adjustment
+23.0
Home QB Adjustment
+9.3
Away QB Adjustment
-13.7
Market Regression
-18.8
Final Difference
270.6
Model Spread
-11.5
Quarterbacks
J. Manziel
Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
-13.7
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
1
Yards / Game
26
6
Passing Yards / Game
12
7
Rushing Yards / Game
22
6
EPA
EPA / Play
29
5
EPA / Pass
28
3
EPA / Rush
18
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
8
Interceptions / Game
11
2
Fumbles / Game
31
23
Turnover EPA / Game
6
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
5
4th Down Efficiency
26
15
RZ Efficiency
32
22
Chiefs Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
29
Yards / Game
25
28
Passing Yards / Game
19
2
Rushing Yards / Game
6
30
EPA
EPA / Play
5
29
EPA / Pass
15
30
EPA / Rush
1
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
2
Interceptions / Game
1
20
Fumbles / Game
7
9
Turnover EPA / Game
30
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
21
4th Down Efficiency
2
27
RZ Efficiency
12
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chiefs
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-5-1
O/U