CLEBrowns
12-5
17
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
40°F
13 mph
22
KCChiefs
14-2
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
40°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
0
7
7
17
Chiefs
6
13
3
0
22
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
55.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
308
438
Total Plays
60
63
Yards / Play
5.1
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.13
Passing Yards
196
315
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
27/38(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
8.3
EPA / Pass
-0.15
+0.28
Rushing Yards
112
123
Rush Attempts
22
24
Yards / Rush
5.1
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.44
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
24
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
46%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.76
-3.58
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-6
Sack EPA
-1.46
-0.46
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
25
55
Penalty EPA
-1.89
-5.29
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model71.9%
Spread Pick
Browns+7.5
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+127
Home nfelo
1,606
Away nfelo
1,490
Home Field
+11.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+1.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-11.3
Home QB Adjustment
+10.5
Away QB Adjustment
+21.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
162.9
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+21.8
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+10.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
10
Yards / Game
16
15
Passing Yards / Game
32
17
Rushing Yards / Game
4
19
EPA
EPA / Play
8
23
EPA / Pass
8
12
EPA / Rush
10
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
27
Interceptions / Game
4
6
Fumbles / Game
18
20
Turnover EPA / Game
23
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
13
4th Down Efficiency
27
29
RZ Efficiency
4
32
Chiefs Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
22
Yards / Game
1
21
Passing Yards / Game
8
24
Rushing Yards / Game
16
9
EPA
EPA / Play
2
22
EPA / Pass
2
23
EPA / Rush
9
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
28
Interceptions / Game
5
10
Fumbles / Game
11
8
Turnover EPA / Game
29
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
25
4th Down Efficiency
11
32
RZ Efficiency
19
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chiefs
9-1
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U