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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ chiefs week 19, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
12-5
17
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
40°F
13 mph
22
KCChiefs
14-2
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
40°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
0
7
7
17
Chiefs
6
13
3
0
22

Spread

CLE logo
+7.5

Total

UNDER
55.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
308
438
Total Plays
60
63
Yards / Play
5.1
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.13
Passing Yards
196
315
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
27/38(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
8.3
EPA / Pass
-0.15
+0.28
Rushing Yards
112
123
Rush Attempts
22
24
Yards / Rush
5.1
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.44
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
21
24
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
46%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.76
-3.58
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-6
Sack EPA
-1.46
-0.46
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
25
55
Penalty EPA
-1.89
-5.29

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model71.8%
Spread Pick
CLE logo
Browns+7.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+10.6%
Cover Probability
57.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+126
Home nfelo
1,605
Away nfelo
1,491
Home Field
+11.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+1.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-11.3
Home QB Adjustment
+10.5
Away QB Adjustment
+21.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
162.5
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+21.8
Value
Ptile
11/01
-5.3
14
11/15
-6.6
9
11/22
-5.7
13
11/29
-0.7
40
12/06
9.2
95
12/14
6.8
87
12/20
7.2
89
12/27
-7.3
7
01/03
1.8
57
01/10
7.3
90
P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.5
Value
Ptile
10/19
5.3
79
10/25
-3.6
21
11/01
13.8
99
11/08
8.6
94
11/22
6.6
87
11/29
13.3
99
12/06
4.5
76
12/13
-0.4
43
12/20
2.6
64
12/27
-0.6
41

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Browns logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
13
10
Yards / Game
16
15
Passing Yards / Game
32
17
Rushing Yards / Game
4
19

EPA

EPA / Play
8
23
EPA / Pass
8
12
EPA / Rush
10
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
27
Interceptions / Game
4
6
Fumbles / Game
18
20
Turnover EPA / Game
23
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
13
4th Down Efficiency
27
29
RZ Efficiency
4
32
Chiefs Offense vs Browns Defense
Chiefs logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
6
22
Yards / Game
1
21
Passing Yards / Game
8
24
Rushing Yards / Game
16
9

EPA

EPA / Play
2
22
EPA / Pass
2
23
EPA / Rush
9
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
28
Interceptions / Game
5
10
Fumbles / Game
11
8
Turnover EPA / Game
29
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
25
4th Down Efficiency
11
32
RZ Efficiency
19
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
-10
L
L
U
11/15
3
W
L
U
11/22
5
W
W
U
11/29
2
W
L
O
12/06
6
W
W
O
12/14
-5
L
L
O
12/20
14
W
W
U
12/27
-7
L
L
U
01/03
2
W
L
O
01/10
11
W
W
O
KC logo

Chiefs

9-1
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
27
W
W
O
11/01
26
W
W
U
11/08
2
W
L
O
11/22
4
W
L
O
11/29
3
W
L
U
12/06
6
W
L
U
12/13
6
W
L
O
12/20
3
W
W
O
12/27
3
W
L
U
01/03
-17
L
L
O