CLEBrowns
0-1
27
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
019
INDColts
0-1
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
14
0
13
27
Colts
3
6
3
7
19
Spread
-1.5
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
303
285
Total Plays
67
66
Yards / Play
4.5
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.13
Passing Yards
197
176
Comp/Att
22/32(69%)
19/38(50%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
4.6
EPA / Pass
+0.18
-0.21
Rushing Yards
106
109
Rush Attempts
34
26
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
19
Passing 1st downs
9
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.97
-9.35
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-14
-15
Sack EPA
-3.36
-7.43
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
49
21
Penalty EPA
-4.69
-3.54
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-1.5
Model
+2.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model44.3%
Spread Pick
Colts+1.5
Expected Value
+7.5%
Cover Probability
56.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+93
Home nfelo
1,494
Away nfelo
1,456
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-29.3
Home QB Adjustment
-33.8
Away QB Adjustment
-4.6
Market Regression
+26.7
Final Difference
40.1
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
D. McCoy
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-4.6
K. Collins
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-33.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
28
Yards / Game
29
24
Passing Yards / Game
20
20
Rushing Yards / Game
28
29
EPA
EPA / Play
26
25
EPA / Pass
23
29
EPA / Rush
24
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
18
Interceptions / Game
9
31
Fumbles / Game
1
18
Turnover EPA / Game
27
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
31
4th Down Efficiency
7
23
RZ Efficiency
29
31
Colts Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
5
Yards / Game
30
10
Passing Yards / Game
27
6
Rushing Yards / Game
26
30
EPA
EPA / Play
31
18
EPA / Pass
28
12
EPA / Rush
30
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
14
Interceptions / Game
13
30
Fumbles / Game
31
4
Turnover EPA / Game
5
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
24
4th Down Efficiency
20
16
RZ Efficiency
27
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Colts
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
5-4-1
O/U