CLEBrowns
3-2
39
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
038
INDColts
3-3
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
14
3
9
33
Colts
14
7
7
10
38
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
316
456
Total Plays
73
67
Yards / Play
4.3
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.15
Passing Yards
166
288
Comp/Att
16/37(43%)
15/23(65%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
12.5
EPA / Pass
-0.25
+0.03
Rushing Yards
150
168
Rush Attempts
34
40
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
25%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
-3.51
-19.40
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-17
-17
Sack EPA
-3.58
-15.28
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
20
67
Penalty EPA
-2.09
-0.76
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-120
Home nfelo
1,398
Away nfelo
1,559
Home Field
+58.2
Base HFA
+43.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-16.6
Home QB Adjustment
+7.8
Away QB Adjustment
+24.5
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+24.5
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
+7.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
28
Yards / Game
16
24
Passing Yards / Game
5
25
Rushing Yards / Game
13
24
EPA
EPA / Play
28
19
EPA / Pass
28
15
EPA / Rush
23
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
18
Interceptions / Game
32
14
Fumbles / Game
26
8
Turnover EPA / Game
1
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
11
4th Down Efficiency
16
30
RZ Efficiency
15
16
Colts Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
21
Yards / Game
14
1
Passing Yards / Game
14
2
Rushing Yards / Game
10
10
EPA
EPA / Play
17
1
EPA / Pass
16
1
EPA / Rush
21
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
11
Interceptions / Game
6
5
Fumbles / Game
16
18
Turnover EPA / Game
19
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
1
4th Down Efficiency
16
1
RZ Efficiency
23
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Colts
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U