CLEBrowns
0-3
20
TBD
FedExField
67°F
1 mph
31
WASCommanders
1-2
TBD
FedExField
67°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
17
3
0
20
Commanders
14
3
0
14
31
Spread
-7.5
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
380
301
Total Plays
69
56
Yards / Play
5.5
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.21
Passing Yards
217
156
Comp/Att
28/40(70%)
21/27(78%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.14
+0.08
Rushing Yards
163
145
Rush Attempts
28
26
Yards / Rush
5.8
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.22
+0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
24
Passing 1st downs
16
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
67%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
8
Red Zone %
67%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-13.24
-6.23
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-6
-27
Sack EPA
-1.03
-4.40
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
101
75
Penalty EPA
-3.48
-1.95
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+153
Home nfelo
1,446
Away nfelo
1,383
Home Field
+57.2
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+32.7
Home QB Adjustment
+10.8
Away QB Adjustment
-21.9
Market Regression
-27.6
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
C. Kessler
Proj. Value
-4.5
Team Elo Adj
-21.9
Value
Ptile
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+10.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
18
Yards / Game
30
28
Passing Yards / Game
16
30
Rushing Yards / Game
18
24
EPA
EPA / Play
27
27
EPA / Pass
27
26
EPA / Rush
23
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
29
Interceptions / Game
16
18
Fumbles / Game
27
20
Turnover EPA / Game
16
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
32
4th Down Efficiency
5
20
RZ Efficiency
15
25
Commanders Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
30
Yards / Game
3
31
Passing Yards / Game
12
9
Rushing Yards / Game
20
30
EPA
EPA / Play
5
32
EPA / Pass
5
32
EPA / Rush
6
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
1
Interceptions / Game
14
22
Fumbles / Game
16
32
Turnover EPA / Game
15
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
30
4th Down Efficiency
14
29
RZ Efficiency
30
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Commanders
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U