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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ commanders week 4, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
0-3
20
TBD
FedExField
67°F
1 mph
31
WASCommanders
1-2
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
67°F
1 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
17
3
0
20
Commanders
14
3
0
14
31

Spread

WAS logo
-7.5

Total

OVER
48

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
380
301
Total Plays
69
56
Yards / Play
5.5
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.21
Passing Yards
217
156
Comp/Att
28/40(70%)
21/27(78%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.14
+0.08
Rushing Yards
163
145
Rush Attempts
28
26
Yards / Rush
5.8
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.22
+0.21
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
26
24
Passing 1st downs
16
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
67%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
8
Red Zone %
67%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-13.24
-6.23
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-6
-27
Sack EPA
-1.03
-4.40
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
101
75
Penalty EPA
-3.48
-1.95

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+150
Home nfelo
1,446
Away nfelo
1,387
Home Field
+58.0
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+32.7
Home QB Adjustment
+10.8
Away QB Adjustment
-21.9
Market Regression
-26.8
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

C. Kessler headshot

C. Kessler

Proj. Value
-4.5
Team Elo Adj
-21.9
Value
Ptile
09/25
-3.0
27
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+10.8
Value
Ptile
11/29
5.1
83
12/07
-0.4
49
12/13
3.1
74
12/20
12.4
99
12/26
7.3
92
01/03
4.1
79
01/10
1.1
58
09/12
1.8
63
09/18
2.3
67
09/25
0.8
55

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Commanders Defense
Browns logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
31
18
Yards / Game
30
28
Passing Yards / Game
16
30
Rushing Yards / Game
18
24

EPA

EPA / Play
27
27
EPA / Pass
27
26
EPA / Rush
23
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
29
Interceptions / Game
16
18
Fumbles / Game
27
20
Turnover EPA / Game
16
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
32
4th Down Efficiency
5
20
RZ Efficiency
15
25
Commanders Offense vs Browns Defense
Commanders logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
11
30
Yards / Game
3
31
Passing Yards / Game
12
9
Rushing Yards / Game
20
30

EPA

EPA / Play
5
32
EPA / Pass
5
32
EPA / Rush
6
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
1
Interceptions / Game
14
22
Fumbles / Game
16
32
Turnover EPA / Game
15
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
30
4th Down Efficiency
14
29
RZ Efficiency
30
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
-21
L
L
U
11/30
-6
L
L
O
12/06
-34
L
L
U
12/13
14
W
W
U
12/20
-17
L
L
U
12/27
-4
L
W
U
01/03
-16
L
L
U
09/11
-19
L
L
U
09/18
-5
L
L
O
09/25
-6
L
W
O
WAS logo

Commanders

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
6
W
W
U
12/07
-3
L
L
U
12/13
3
W
W
O
12/20
10
W
W
O
12/26
14
W
W
O
01/03
11
W
W
O
01/10
-17
L
L
O
09/12
-22
L
L
O
09/18
-4
L
L
O
09/25
2
W
W
O