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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ cowboys week 11, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
2-7
20
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
23
DALCowboys
4-5
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Browns
7
6
0
7
0
20
Cowboys
0
0
3
17
3
23

Spread

CLE logo
+7

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
311
320
Total Plays
70
78
Yards / Play
4.4
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.04
Passing Yards
192
257
Comp/Att
20/35(57%)
35/50(70%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.01
Rushing Yards
119
63
Rush Attempts
33
21
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
19
30
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
10
3rd Down %
40%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
50%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.38
-4.96
Sacks
2
7
Sack Yards
-18
-56
Sack EPA
-7.89
-13.75
Penalties
12
9
Penalty Yards
129
92
Penalty EPA
-9.89
-11.19

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+210
Home nfelo
1,580
Away nfelo
1,400
Home Field
+24.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+6.0
Home QB Adjustment
+1.6
Away QB Adjustment
-4.4
Market Regression
-53.9
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

B. Weeden headshot

B. Weeden

Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-4.4
Value
Ptile
09/09
-13.8
0
09/16
6.3
88
09/23
-5.3
16
09/27
-2.2
34
10/07
1.9
61
10/14
-0.6
46
10/21
5.3
83
10/28
-7.9
6
11/04
-5.6
15
A. Romo headshot

A. Romo

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.6
Value
Ptile
01/01
0.0
52
09/05
5.5
84
09/16
-0.1
49
09/23
-4.6
21
10/01
-2.6
32
10/14
4.1
75
10/21
3.7
73
10/28
-2.9
31
11/04
5.5
85
11/11
1.1
57

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Browns logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
24
24
Yards / Game
25
18
Passing Yards / Game
24
16
Rushing Yards / Game
24
20

EPA

EPA / Play
26
25
EPA / Pass
27
28
EPA / Rush
13
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
15
Interceptions / Game
27
31
Fumbles / Game
3
22
Turnover EPA / Game
17
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
23
4th Down Efficiency
21
22
RZ Efficiency
30
19
Cowboys Offense vs Browns Defense
Cowboys logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
14
19
Yards / Game
8
22
Passing Yards / Game
1
20
Rushing Yards / Game
31
18

EPA

EPA / Play
13
12
EPA / Pass
10
18
EPA / Rush
24
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
15
Interceptions / Game
28
11
Fumbles / Game
19
5
Turnover EPA / Game
9
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
14
4th Down Efficiency
1
27
RZ Efficiency
20
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

2-8
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
-4
L
W
U
09/09
-1
L
W
U
09/16
-7
L
P
O
09/23
-10
L
L
U
09/27
-7
L
W
U
10/07
-14
L
L
O
10/14
10
W
W
O
10/21
-4
L
L
U
10/28
1
W
W
U
11/04
-10
L
L
U
DAL logo

Cowboys

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
-17
L
L
U
09/05
7
W
W
U
09/16
-20
L
L
U
09/23
6
W
L
U
10/01
-16
L
L
O
10/14
-2
L
W
O
10/21
5
W
W
U
10/28
-5
L
L
O
11/04
-6
L
L
U
11/11
15
W
W
O