CLEBrowns
2-7
20
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
023
DALCowboys
4-5
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Browns
7
6
0
7
0
20
Cowboys
0
0
3
17
3
23
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
311
320
Total Plays
70
78
Yards / Play
4.4
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.04
Passing Yards
192
257
Comp/Att
20/35(57%)
35/50(70%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.01
Rushing Yards
119
63
Rush Attempts
33
21
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
30
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
10
3rd Down %
40%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
50%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.38
-4.96
Sacks
2
7
Sack Yards
-18
-56
Sack EPA
-7.89
-13.75
Penalties
12
9
Penalty Yards
129
92
Penalty EPA
-9.89
-11.19
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+214
Home nfelo
1,581
Away nfelo
1,398
Home Field
+24.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+6.0
Home QB Adjustment
+1.6
Away QB Adjustment
-4.4
Market Regression
-53.9
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
B. Weeden
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-4.4
A. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
24
Yards / Game
25
18
Passing Yards / Game
24
16
Rushing Yards / Game
24
20
EPA
EPA / Play
26
25
EPA / Pass
27
28
EPA / Rush
13
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
15
Interceptions / Game
27
31
Fumbles / Game
3
22
Turnover EPA / Game
17
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
23
4th Down Efficiency
21
22
RZ Efficiency
30
19
Cowboys Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
19
Yards / Game
8
22
Passing Yards / Game
1
20
Rushing Yards / Game
31
18
EPA
EPA / Play
13
12
EPA / Pass
10
18
EPA / Rush
24
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
15
Interceptions / Game
28
11
Fumbles / Game
19
5
Turnover EPA / Game
9
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
14
4th Down Efficiency
1
27
RZ Efficiency
20
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
2-8
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Cowboys
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U